Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold: The Anti-Bubble

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Gold is not a risk asset, it is an insurance policy, and the gold mining industry will one day leverage that characteristic

Just as a standard financial insurance policy is meant to only pay out when bad things happen, gold will only pay out when bad financial things happen. Sure, it’s assigned price can rise with other asset markets, but it’s price related to risk assets will under-perform when said risk assets are in a bull phase or an unbroken bubble.

As you can see, the bubble in policy-making, and thus, risk assets, is unbroken. Insurance has not been needed, yet. Why would anyone want to speculate on gold when its relative performance is so poor?

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Gold Stock Correction Hits Target #1

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The gold stock correction has been in play since GDX/HUI doubled topped in April-May

Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View

We begin this article, which updates the gold stock correction, as a platform for providing information requested by two NFTRH subscribers. Below are the recent seasonal tendencies for GDX. I’ve elected to use only the years from 2018 to current in order to keep the graph clean and to show that 2023 is shaping up per the norm in the post-pandemic era.

  • Years 2019 and 2020 are actually outliers, even beyond the scope of this chart’s historical limit (2018). Pre-2018 featured trends more like the norm shown below.
  • Years 2018, 2021, 2022 and thus far 2023 are more per the norm.
  • If that norm plays out in 2023 (orange line) the gold stock sector will bottom in September.
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