Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold Stocks: Not Quite Yet

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Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process

The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).

While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.

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“Post-Bubble Contraction”

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“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand

Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble phases because the Fed’s main macro manipulation tool, bonds, were in a multi-decade long trend of disinflationary signaling.

To this point with respect to the PBC, timing has been an issue. This is not a critique of Hoye, a fine financial historian and macro fundamental analyst. In fact, it is the opposite. It is from him that I learned the proper fundamentals for gold and especially the gold mining industry. But perfectly good deflationary meltdowns (of previous inflationary operations) were foiled in both 2008 and 2020.

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The Gold Stock Road Map

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It’s a long and volatile road for the gold miners

A daily chart snapshot of the current technical situation for the HUI Gold Bugs index shows a small Head & Shoulders pattern that formed in July-August as noted in this August 28th NFTRH premium update (now public) before it broke down.

So we have Huey holding the neckline of an ugly little pattern today. What I find interesting though is that if the neckline is lost the pattern’s target would be around 178, which… is support area per the weekly chart.

You can see both charts as they were in the update linked above in August.

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Post-Gap Crap

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Yesterday I did a premium post called Golden Gap, in which I wrote:

Over the past six trading days, precious metals have managed to mount a hearty recovery, thanks to the (long-awaited) break in the US dollar’s relentless climb. I would like to suggest, however, that gold – – which has done an excellent job of disappointing precious metals fans for the past seven months solid – – may be reaching an important resistance point in the form of that island reversal gap. In other words, I think this might be just about “it” for now.
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Gold & Silver Big Picture

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Excerpted from the October 2 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 725:

Gold & Silver

Gold and silver (monthly chart) continue in the cyclical bear that started in mid-2020. I had originally (and incorrectly) projected a Cup & Handle for gold that had to be revised to a double top when the 2022 high failed to gain blue sky. I’ve left the Cup drawn on the chart but that is no longer a handle of any sort. It’s a mess, actually.

The next technical target for gold is support in the 1500s per this Sept. 15th update [password protected]. Also note that the update included an extreme downside below 1300. While not overly likely (IMO), that would put a hard test on the bull market, which was indicated when gold took out the 1378 “bull gateway” (the bull/bear line shown below) in 2019.

As for silver, it continues to hold important long-term support at/around 18 after making a quick breakdown and reversal.

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