Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Rising Wedges Break Down

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In my posts on 20th October, 24th October, and 28th October I was looking at the rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.

I was saying that these are all good quality mature patterns that I would normally expect to break down, but was concerned that we might instead see the start of a larger break up into December.

My concerns to the upside were firstly that November and December lean significantly bullish, and that remains the case of course.

Shorter term I was concerned that the Fed cut might trigger an upside break but that didn’t happen.

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What Thursday Requires

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On Monday, I did a lengthy premium post stating what marvelously uniform the wedge patterns in the indexes were, and how powerful a position the bears might be in (“I’ve never seen such gorgeous unanimity among such a wide variety of stock indexes“). On Tuesday, the market fell hard, agreeing with that assessment.

Today, of course, the market rallied mightily, but even in the face of such dire adversity, I did another premium post which pointed out that all that buying had merely pushed prices back to perfect points of resistance. As I stand here on Wednesday evening, that continues to be true, with a pixel-perfect tag of the trendline executed by the /RTY.

Take note of how what used to be support (green arrows) transformed (blue oval) into resistance (red arrow).

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