Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Unity’s Top at the Bottom

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Normally, when one is hunting for intriguing short-sale setups, he might think the way to go is to look for something that’s really expensive and near lifetime highs. I’d like to offer a fresh example of something that doesn’t fit this mold.

Here is Unity Software (symbol U) which, as you can see by the tint, is sporting a remarkably well-formed head and shoulders pattern. It has all the characteristics you’d want to see: a well-defined shape, an easily identified neckline, a sharp drop, and a full retracement. This looks just a great place to short, or at least watch very closely to enter a bearish position.

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King of the Wedgies

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The broker/dealer index continues to be an absolute honey of a pattern. I’m not trading this directly (nor am I acquainted with any way to do so), but I do think the clarity of this bearish setup makes the $XBD a steadfast ally of the bears. So long as it remains below that broken wedge – – and, ideally, slips hard away from its completed apex – – I think this will help resume weakness in the overall market very soon.

Possible Path For Crypto into October

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I’ve been having a good look at the longer term correlation between Crypto & equity indices and it is a strong one that has been impressively consistent over the last 8 years. The chart below just covers the last five years of SPX vs BTUSD (Bitcoin) but you can see that the upswings and downswings tend to be correlated, and going back to 2016 the big highs on both are decently matched, with a strong tendency for Crypto to turn down before equities do.

I was asked a couple of weeks ago whether this might be happening again, with Crypto having topped a few months ago and SPX, NDX and Dow all looking as though a significant high might be close. I’ve looked at that and would say that it would be more typical for the two highs to be within a month of each other, though there is a possibly comparable period as BTCUSD was forming a bull flag for ten months or so in 2019-20 with the C wave down during the 2020 COVID crash.

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