Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Election & Fannie Mae

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Some have argued that if President Donald Trump loses the election, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be left in conservatorship instead of recapitalized and released. However, Tim Pagliara of CapWealth Advisors has argued that even if Joe Biden wins the election, he believes the government-sponsored enterprises will still be released.

Now it seems analyst Dick Bove of Odeon Capital agrees with him, although he disagreed before. He said in a recent report that regardless of election’s results, the winner needs the housing market to be strong, and that requires Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be in good shape.

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DEFCON 3

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President Trump exits Marine One at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center after being diagnosed with COVID-19 (photo via Fox 5 New York). 

Military DEFCON 5, Market DEFCON 3

After President Trump announced on Thursday that he and the First Lady were being tested for COVID-19, Twitter users made Tim Hogan’s tweet about spotting Boeing E-6 Mercury planes go viral. Quoting Hogan’s tweet, Alexandra Chalupa described the purpose of that plane in alarming, but essentially correct, language. 

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Post-Debate Election Risk

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With the first Trump-Biden debate of 2020 in the books, we’ve headed into the final stretch of the 2020 election. Let’s note the election risk and then look at how to protect against it. 

Election Risk

A couple of weeks ago, a Finnish business journalist asked me which candidate would be worse for the market. I told her that the risk in the near term wasn’t either candidate winning, but neither candidate winning: that the best thing for near term returns was a decisive election night victory. In a Wednesday article (“As Election Looms, Investors See Uncertainty. They Don’t Like It.”), investment professionals interviewed by the New York Times made similar points. For example:

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