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Our boys in Gainesville has finally cracked. After predicting the end of the world for eons, they’ve resigned themselves to just observing market extremes, slack-jawed, without offering any insights into when it’ll stop, how, or at what level. I just went through the latest Theorist (which only comes out once a month, so there’s tons of time to prepare), and it was nothing more than some folks in a car passing an accident, slack-jawed and astonished.
It seems the market is now totally immune to trade war news. It just doesn’t care. The bombshell on Saturday that both the EU and Mexico would be slapped with 30% tariffs would have, in normal times, caused an historic crash? Today? Well, pre-market, equities (shown below with the /ES) are down maybe one-fifth of a single percentage point. Just. Don’t. Care.
In Robert Altman’s movie Short Cuts, which is packed with great quotes, there’s one particular bit of dialog I’m thinking about lately.
Well, after nearly an hour of waiting for the Grok 4 livestream to start, I’m just going to compose my last post of the day and send it out, since the livestream is neither live nor streaming.
Simply stated, the market hasn’t gone down since April 21st. Hardly a downtick in sight. For obvious reasons, I am feeling this particularly acutely, and as of Wednesday’s close I was still at a whisper light commitment level of 73% (with one portfolio a vanishingly tiny 23% commitment level, which is just plain sad).
Yet if you look at an of the index charts below over the past three months, not only has the market done nothing but go up, but it has done so with increasingly smooth and predictable regularity. It’s a true bummer. Seriously.
As The Director can attest (who has to endure SMS texts from me anytime I’m freaking out), I was more than a bit peeved at the market this morning. Whenever I get that way, I take a breath, empty out my Bear Pen completely, and go through my entire Core List to seek out short opportunities. Below are the twenty-seven members, nice ‘n’ fresh, with those in red representing positions I was already in. I’m going to sit tight until after the FOMC Wednesday before expanding into any new positions.
