Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

From Brittle to Robust

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Compared to recent days, it’s a relatively mellow morning, with screens green pretty much across the board. The only momentary shock was when Trump off-handedly suggested that an 80% tariff on China would seem about right, which caused some brief EKG action in the /ES.

A month ago, such an announcement would push the /ES limit down for the day, but in these more robust times, one small trader in Nutley, New Jersey sold off his long position and then the market continued on its merry way. It has learned to shake off such news instantly.

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Rumors and Cowardice

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Things were swimming along just dandy this morning until Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, decided to make his daily announcement that trade deals were coming Real Soon Now. This was augmented by Trump stating he would have some “good news” to share on Thursday. Markets exploded higher, and in my inimitable style, I slipped on a pink sundress and immediately covered 4 of my 20 positions.

You already know what happened next.

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The Zone of Uncertainty

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It was a welcome relief to avoid having a tenth, yes, tenth day in a row of the market lurching higher. One day does not a trend make (or break), however, and there’s something more general I wanted to share which is on my mind, particularly as we await the pointless Fed announcement and press conference on Wednesday.

It’s what I’ll call the “zone of uncertainty“, which is the space on the y-axis spanning from Friday’s peak to the peak of the March 25th bounce. I’ve marked it on each chart below in yellow. Give these big indexes a glance………..

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