Two months ago, the market was absolutely electrifying. Day to day, one never knew what the direction would be, but whether up or down, it would be big. The daily swings were large, and sometimes historic. It was a ball.
These days, I think someone should get a stick and give the market a good poke to see if it’s even alive anymore. The VIX has fallen from the upper 50s to the mid-teens, and an entire twenty-four period can go by with the /ES moving only a few points up or down. There are some Saturdays that are more exciting than this.
One slight exception is that, minutes ago, rumors began to swirl that – gasp! – Trump and Xi chatted on the phone. That blasted markets straight up, since we all know that all the problems we have, from the $37 trillion in debt, to the horrible divisions in our nation, will all get swept away with some kind of US/China trade deal. Joking aside, it is unsettling to me that the mere rumor of a phone call would spike a market already at very lofty levels, but as I’m typing this, most of the spike has already faded.
Just about the only long-term, sane, easy-to-interpret chart for me remains the /RTY futures, which for years has hammered out some excellent trading ranges. We’re at the top of one right now.
I remain moderately positioned, at 94%, and see it as my job to keep trying to find something – anything! – in this market worth writing about. I am in these circumstances reminded of this salient quote.
