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First the data. Then, the feelings.
All the inflation data is out (CPI yesterday, PPI today), and it is ice cold. The actual data (left column) is way, way below the anticipated (right). In normal times – – and these are NOT – – the bulls would be celebrating this with +200 on the /ES. Instead, it’s slowly sinking in that deflation is creeping into our lives, and that’s not something to celebrate.
Yesterday was perhaps the best trading day of my life, particularly with respect to timing and psychological management. For that reason, I hardly slept at all. I went to bed worried. I woke up every hour worried. And I got up worried. I was practically shaking when I fired up my iPad and was relieved to see the equity futures all still red (although not as much as they had been). What’s on my mind is straight from my trading rules:
VIII. EMOTIONAL AWARENESS IS YOUR GREATEST ASSET – Feeling super-confident and giddy? You should probably be in all cash. Feeling demoralized, frustrated, and out of synch? You’re probably close to a great entry point.(more…)
I’d say we’re at an extreme. I sure hope so!!!!!
