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It seems like we’ve been talking about the IYR analog since John Kennedy was in office. This thing moves so damn slowly. The flip side is that if the pattern does complete, the move will likewise be powerful and persistent.
As a reminder, the “analog” actually doesn’t exist anymore, but only because the recent topping pattern is so much better than what took place pre-Covid. The trio of exponential moving averages is definitely behaving itself properly.
Well, this morning is a disappointment so far. The surprise news from MIcrosoft briefly took the market down hard, but as I’m typing this, every single stock futures contract is in the green. Feh!
The real estate fund IYR is down, however, in spite of the rally, and it remains one of the cleanest topping patterns in ETF-land.
Home prices are still strong, but the strength behind those prices (AKA the volume) is on the wane.
As sickeningly green as today is, one fund which is still rock-solid (and indeed has presented itself anew as a shorting opportunity) is our old friend IYR, the real estate fund. I shorted this today with a stop-loss at 97.40:
