Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Good morning, everyone. Well, it’s Revenge of the Bulls this morning, isn’t it? Meh. My options are all expiring next year, some of them 134 days out, so I’m not going to let a few minutes of a bullish fever dream rattle me.
I’d like to point out the topping pattern going on with symbol IYR, the real estate fund.
Ventas is probably not a company you’ve heard about before, but it’s actually a member of the S&P 500 and, as the generous P/E ratio illustrates, is very, very richly valued. In a nutshell, it’s a company that owns and leases out real estate to the healthcare industry. It’s a REIT for doctors and hospitals.
Below are three ETFs representative of the real estate industry. The first and three are range-bound, and the middle one (against which I own puts) has a broken trendline and analog. My view is that as interest rates creep higher, the zeal for real estate will be choked off (Exhibit A: Zillow).
One of today’s train wrecks is Zillow (symbol Z) which I only found out recently decided that no one knew more about real estate data than they did, so they would become the world’s biggest house-flippers. Well, that’s not working out so great. It would be like taking Slope and turning it into a hedge fund, based on its access to data.
I always like to look at where stocks like this peaked, to see if there was any clue. The top price was only nine months ago, back on February 16th, when it peaked at $208.11. Well, it has lost about TWO THIRDS of its market cap in that span of time, and this shooting star was the ringing bell marking the top:
