My bearish-on-bonds disposition has remain unaltered all year, .and recent activity is pushing us toward what could be an important next step.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
After the Fall
There’s something I’ve noticed on Slope that I find perplexing, a little troubling, and ever-so-slightly amusing. Whenever I write anything that seems to be a prediction, some people get their feathers quite ruffled. Indeed, it seems to kind of piss them off, and they pound their virtual fists on the virtual table and declare that no one can predict anything, and that it’s an arrogant waste of time to even attempt it.
I’m in the business of prediction. Principally, I use historical price charts to try my best to suggest what the future holds. That sort of thing doesn’t seem to bother folks. On the contrary, it’s kept Slope popular, to varying degrees, for nearly fourteen years.
However, when I make, shall we say, textual predictions, some people object. I guess all I can say to that group is………you might as well stop reading the post now, because I wanted to offer up a few speculations about what’s ahead. I am by no means a futurist or an expert in societal trends. By far my biggest “this is what’s coming” success was the 1983 book I wrote, which I’ve mentioned here before, called The World Connection, which predicted our online world with Nostradamus-like accuracy. (more…)
Systemic Risk Lurking in the U.S. Housing Market?
The U.S. Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is in bear market territory…down 24.68% from its peak on January 24 of this year.
On a year-to-date percentages gained/lost basis, it has drastically underperformed the 9 U.S. Major Sectors, as shown on the graph below.
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| Year-to-date % Gained/Lost graph of 9 U.S. Major Sectors + Homebuilders |
Homies & Real Estate: Does This Look Healthy?
[edit] As if on cue, out comes Anthony B. Sanders with… US Housing Starts Plunge Under Rising Interest Rates
I agree with you, this does not look healthy.




