Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

What Novice Investors Can Learn From The SVB Fiasco

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There are a lot of complex questions relating to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that will go unanswered for years. Following the banks’ fall from grace, and causing perhaps one of the most frantic banking crises since 2008, investors and depositors, and even government committees remain puzzled over the legitimacy of America’s banking system and the future risks that could be bubbling underneath the surface. 

Considering how these events unfolded over several months, which was a culmination of poor risk management, inadequate regulation, bulging interest rates over the last two years, and liquidity issues; novice investors could learn from these failures alongside their more seasoned peers. 

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The Tragedy of Interim Bulletins

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“Sell in May and go away,” my ass.

To be honest, it should have been crystal clear when I got the special “Interim Bulletin” from the boys in Gainesville two days ago. Any time the market really seems like it’s totally done and will enter a free-fall, they send out one of these things. It only happens once or twice a year, but I don’t think any of them have ever preceded anything except another rally.

So what has transpired in the two days since then was predictable……….

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The Target is Set

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As I mentioned last post, I dropped to my knees, thanked my lucky stars, and eased back on positions. Here is my present positioning:

  • 25 bearish positions
  • Increased cash from 0% to 20%
  • Salty as hell

The easing back comes from two places. One, spending the weekend scared to pieces about what today would bring, and grateful to have less risk on, and two, cognizant of the CPI report in the morning and not wanting to get unexpectedly run over. The point is that my nerves have had their fair share of strain over the past 48 hours, and I’m giving myself some peace.

Although I reduced it a full 50%, my EFA short is still my biggest position, and the top has completed nicely with a gap this morning to boot.

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