Can you believe this sucker was IN THE TEENS only last MONTH? Anyway, this thing has been stroked and stroked and stroked for so long, I’m not so sure how much longer it can contain itself.

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Can you believe this sucker was IN THE TEENS only last MONTH? Anyway, this thing has been stroked and stroked and stroked for so long, I’m not so sure how much longer it can contain itself.

Let me share a personal experience and hope you and I can both learn something from it.
I’m not sure precisely when it began, but this premium post from March 7th is a good place to start. In the post, I make it abundantly clear that the real estate fund IYR is one of my favorite analogs of all time (using such words as “crazy about this analog” and “just ga-ga”). I’m certain this wasn’t my first post about it, but it is at least one where I put a stake very firmly in the ground that I am bonkers about the IYR short.

This week has been jam-packed with economic reports (while next week will instead be dominated by Pencil Dick ‘n’ Friends), and the last report to tumble out will be on Friday morning by way of the Consumer Sentiment report, released half an hour after the opening bell.
I’m shocked at how far, and steadily, this is falling. Consumers are pretty much hating life these days.

One look at the chart of the percentage of stocks above their 15-day moving average shows how uniformly overbought the market is. These price peaks have reliably preceded plunges all year long.
