Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Seismic Sentiment Shift

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Since the market bottomed on June 16th, the /ES has gone up hundreds of points (well over 300) and the Dow Industrials is up thousands. There has been an enormous change in sentiment, with the consensus being that the brief bear market (if you want to call it that) experienced during a tiny portion of this year was all the suffering that was required to clear out all the sins of the past quarter century.

Besides the fact that Zerohedge has more bullish articles every week than even the likes of Yahoo Finance, even Elliott Wave has thrown in the proverbial towel, declaring their “alternate scenario‘ (AKA the bear market ain’t happening) is in play. It wasn’t that long ago that they were stone-cold certain that we’d be plunging non-stop. This afternoon, hat in hand, they meekly sent out an ‘Interim Bulletin” (never a good sign) that raised the white flag. Their mojo is gone. Totally. Elliott Wave has SURRENDERED.

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Weak Week

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Good morning, beloved Slopers. And I say good morning since the /ES isn’t up 300 points right now. But, honestly, just think of how much has changed in a single week’s time. Last week, at precisely the moment I am typing these words, the market was in a total free-fall thanks for the white-hot inflation numbers that that had just tumbled out. Since that time, evidently, ALL the problems that had caused market weakness all year long have been totally solved, and Mr. Jason Goepfert (and, come on, let’s face it, Knight is such a better name) declares the following for the world of Wall Street Shills and Permabulls:

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The GME Canary (by XerxesTraderGF)

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I’ll start off by stating that I am not trading GME. That is to say, I am not placing trades on it directly, but I am certainly watching it intently throughout the rest of the year. My reason is simple. Of all things a trader would want is a window into the mindset of their opponent (the market). And the two biggest emotions which drive the market in either direction is Hope and Fear.

In Bull markets, I was trained to watch price action and a handful of indicators for entries/exits, potential reversals etc. But I was also taught to look at the market leaders, which for the past few years had been FAANG. When looking for big moves in the broader market, one could usually look to the leaders first to see how strong they were. Big strong moves by markets leaders usually preceded and led the market on big strong days. This was all open to interpretation and sounds a bit obvious, but as you get more experienced you start to look for tells in the market versus noise .

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Man Without a Website

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I’m starting to feel like a bit of a stranger on Slope. The reason is there’s so much optimism. I think the reason is simple enough: people have 2009-2021 on the brain. In other words, things were never allowed to get more than a little bad. And the bad never lasted long at all. So even the likes of Slopers have been conditioned to believe that bad news will not be tolerated, pain will not be permitted, and help will always be on the way. Indeed, strolling into the Slope comments section gives me a true Cramer zeitgeist:

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