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The big “off-season” earnings announcement yesterday evening was Micron (MU) and it absolutely BLASTED higher the moment the report came out. And now? It has lost 100% of the pop and is now, amazingly, in the red. I shorted it this morning and I think it’s a keeper.
The $VIX is a curious creature to analyze, since it is such a different beast than most other kinds of charts. To get some fresh perspective, let’s look at some cruder granularities of this sentiment measurement.
First, let’s look at it from a quarterly perspective going back a third of a century. As you can see, the spike we enjoyed in volatility is very prominent, being the third-highest peak in this entire data set. The “Liberation Day” excitement (which feels like, oh, about 70 years ago at this point) was all too brief, but now the VIX is once again at an extraordinarily dull mid-teens level where it typically slumbers.
Excerpted from the May 11 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 862:
Dumb money apparently thinks that now that Trump is making a few sounds about making nicey nice with some trade partners, all’s well again. Dumb money is gulping down stonks even more aggressively now, while Smart money is fading. A degrading contrary-sentiment picture here.
An interesting graphic illustrating how years different with respect to volatility. 2008 sure was fun!
