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Although there’s no doubt that the bulls are absolutely stomping the bears this morning, the movement so far isn’t exactly definitive. Incredibly, the /NQ actually went red briefly during all the gyrations following the mild CPI report. As of this moment, the /ES and /NQ are both up half a percent while the small caps are up more strongly at one and two thirds percent.
Is this put/call ratio debased enough for you?
The big “off-season” earnings announcement yesterday evening was Micron (MU) and it absolutely BLASTED higher the moment the report came out. And now? It has lost 100% of the pop and is now, amazingly, in the red. I shorted it this morning and I think it’s a keeper.
The $VIX is a curious creature to analyze, since it is such a different beast than most other kinds of charts. To get some fresh perspective, let’s look at some cruder granularities of this sentiment measurement.
First, let’s look at it from a quarterly perspective going back a third of a century. As you can see, the spike we enjoyed in volatility is very prominent, being the third-highest peak in this entire data set. The “Liberation Day” excitement (which feels like, oh, about 70 years ago at this point) was all too brief, but now the VIX is once again at an extraordinarily dull mid-teens level where it typically slumbers.
