Although there’s no doubt that the bulls are absolutely stomping the bears this morning, the movement so far isn’t exactly definitive. Incredibly, the /NQ actually went red briefly during all the gyrations following the mild CPI report. As of this moment, the /ES and /NQ are both up half a percent while the small caps are up more strongly at one and two thirds percent.
Over a longer time horizon, you can see the SPY mashed up against its lifetime intraday high. We’ll have to see if the bulls can push it across the finish line or not.
Oddly, even though the odds for a rate cut burst higher this morning, bonds are actually weak. The /ZB and TLT (below) are down about two-thirds of a percent, and the massive reversal pattern is not only still in formation but is progress in the direction of, ultimately, a failure.
Don’t get me wrong: today stinks for me! I’ve been stopped out of a few positions, and I’m presently at a commitment level of merely 54%. Not a good day so far!
