Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Index Update

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In the midst of lifetime highs, let’s take a stroll through some major cash index markets. The NASDAQ Composite is near lifetime highs but didn’t quite make it there. On Friday, tech stocks were strong but less than half as strong as the small caps. The damage to the trendline is formidable, and if there’s going to be any weakness next week, it’s much more likely from tech stocks than, let’s say, the industrials.

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Rates Updates

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Following Powell’s surrender on Friday, a glance through the charts seems to strongly support the prospect that rates across the board are going to drop substantially. I do not pretend to be an interest rate expert, but it seems to me shorter-term rates will be more prone to weakening than, let’s say, the thirty year. Almost all the charts below have a similar setup: a sharp rise in rates, a rounded top, and what appears to be the beginning of a drop. Here we have the 10-year rates:

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