Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Qfinity and Insanity

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Well, we did see a green close yesterday, and we
still have two more days to see the test of the high. In this day and age of
Qfinity anything is possible and team O&B may not like to see the market
red for too many days. It is now illegal to have red close for more than two
days in a row.  However if we do not see
the test of the high by Friday and we see continued weakness, I would advise
caution if you are planning to go short. The cycles are up till around 25th-27th
September. After all, the test of high is only about 10-15 points away and
unless we have seen a failed test of the high, it is too risky to short.

That Bernanke put is reflected in the following chart.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment Chart

The bullish sentiment is now reaching the danger zone but
not everything is extreme yet.

Yesterday, both bonds and equities were up. Gold and silver spent
the day hurrying up and going nowhere. But Crude gave sell signal. However,
given the geo political madness in Middle East, I do not want to take a short
trade on Oil. Thanks but no thanks.

Forbes also talks about gold:

If you remember, I had written before that I expect gold to
reach around $2500 in near future and I am waiting to get long gold again, now
that every central bank has started printing money and inflation will come
before they realize it. I am waiting for a good entry in PM.

Things may seem quite but it is churning inside and it is
highly unlikely that a triple witching week will be quite. It is time for
portfolio adjustments. So better be careful.

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Illusion In The Wonderland

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First, let me apologies for my absence for the last few days. I was hoping that I will get some respite after 8th August but now it seems my pressure situation will continue till mid-Sept. But that’s life, so no point cribbing.

Coming back to market, I would like to start with some interesting COT data. We would do well to remember that COT report does not result in immediate action. It just shows what smart money is doing well in advance behind the scene while the retail is distracted. The 1st  chart is the S&P Emini contracts.

Cot Emini

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Predicting Market Action From First Hour Pt. 4 (by Ryan Mallory)

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So far, we've talked primarily about trending days and what kind of early morning action brings them about, and what can be expected throughout the rest of the day. But lets change things up a bit, and let's look at what happens when the market is direction-less and what we can expect before it happens. 

FIrst-off, these types of trading days tends to wear traders out, because whether you are long or short, nothing seems to really stick, and often times traders will see profits come and go, with no chance at capturing them, and that leads to this kind of behavior: 

  

 

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