Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Benpecked

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henpecked Benpecked (‘ben·pekd)

Definition

adjective

  1. (of a man stock trader) continually harassed or tormented by the persistent nagging of a woman central bank chairman (esp. his wife Ben Bernanke)

Ben-pecked

As I’ve discussed quite a bit lately, what makes the recent Sept
14-Nov 17th correction different from all other similar sell-offs in
recent years is the lack of fear this time around.  There are generally
two types of traders who short the market, other than commercial
hedgers:  The “permabears”, who always think the market is going to drop
and those more adept, flexible traders who are just as comfortable
trading the short side as the long side, depending on the charts,
valuation, and other market metrics.  I like to believe that I fall into
the latter categorization but I digress.

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No Fear

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I often liken stock market predictions to weather forecasting.  A
meteorologist can tell you what the weather will be like tomorrow with a
very high degree of certainty.  However, as the forecast is extended in
time, the accuracy diminishes.  Trying to forecast what the weather
will be like anything more than a few weeks out, other than
incorporating the typical seasonal patterns is basically a crap-shoot. 

The same holds true when using technical and even fundamental analysis
to forecast future prices in individual stocks or the stock market
although I do believe that the charts, combined with the study of the
business cycle and other macro-economics, do allow us to make
potentially accurate longer-term predictions.

$VIX vs. $SPX 11-14-12

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What’s the Dumb Money Doing Now?

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Back in May, as the stock market was heading into its final decline
prior to this year’s seemingly improbable second half rally, I wrote an
article called Dumb Money Sold in May and Went Away. 
Later, this view was backed up with positions in global emerging bonds
and markets, global bonds, developed global markets, frontier markets,
technology, energy, rare earths, lithium, silver and gold.

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