Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Slopefest IV & SPY Guessing Contest (by Market Sniper)
Happy Holidays to my fellow Slopers! May the New Year bring you more trading success! Time to start planning the upcoming annual Slopefest! Meet old friends and make new ones. Put a face and name to that avatar. As our gracious host, Mr. Tim knight, appears to be travelling to the Big Apple shortly and festivities surrounding that event could include an official Slopefest, the one planned for 2012 in Las Vegas, Nevada may either be IV or V.
Slopefest date: May 19 and 20 in the year 2012 Anno Domani
Slopefest location: Las Vegas, Nevada, US of A
I Have Done the Right Thing
King Arthur: Merlin! I've just recalled what Merlin said to me. How wondrous! How strange! Merlin said you would be the greatest knight to sit at my table. But that was long before I had thought of a table. So he knew it would exist. And I thought he meant a dining table! But he meant the round table. So I have stumbled on my future! I have done the right thing!
Lancelot: Did you ever doubt yourself, your majesty?
King Arthur: Of course! Only fools never doubt!
I rarely pre-empt Springheel Jack's morning posts, but I'm going to make an exception on this exceptional morning.
I spent Friday, Saturday, and Sunday (until the open) wringing my hands and pummelling myself with self-doubt at my decision to cover all 72 of my short positions on Friday and go long. I've got to say, I've never been so happy to see the market exploding higher on a Monday pre-market morning. The only thing I am short is bonds, and they are falling hard.
I was right to recognize the topping pattern and short the market.
I was right to cover my shorts on Friday.
And I was right to go long.
This is a very good feeling. I like it. I like it a lot.
And I like it even more since this is the first big step toward prices at which I will short everything under the sun with unmitigated glee.
In the meantime, I am delighted to be a government-subsidized bull, suckling at the teat of universal welfare-for-whiners, basking in sparkling glow of bailout beams, and awaiting the opportunity to rip off my false costume and reveal the snarling, furry, inexplicably-loveable beast that I truly am.
Have a good day.
Here’s the Tough Part
My pointing out of the diamond pattern on the NQ (even while it was in formation) and the price collapse that followed was spot-on. Well, that's all lovely, but here's the bummer part: we are nearing the price target.
That bums me out. Watching prices collapse is a total kick, and it always stinks to see it draw near an end. I have started covering some positions for nice profits, but I must confess a certain amount of chagrin at the entire affair. I'd prefer markets go to $0, but sadly, they always find support.
I even went long a big SPY position a little earlier today when it looked like a bit of a base was forming, but I got out at a tiny ($1,000) loss before any real damage was done.
I am keeping one thing in mind, though: oftentimes the lion's share of price change happens just before the reversal, so even if you capture 95% of the move on a time-basis, you can miss 30% of the price move in that final little scream. So I'm holding off on completely covering until the target is utterly achieved.
Your Trading Journal (Market Sniper)
In the past few days there has been a lot of discussion on The Slope about keeping a trading journal. Here is a very brief examination of the subject. I hope it helps!
I cannot over stress how important it is that the trader maintain a constantly up to date trading journal. Yet most traders do not even have one! A trading journal is NOT just a compilation of entry, exit and net profit or loss for each trade. That is what is in your brokerage statements . Of course, you should also include that information. There are many things that can go into your trading journal and each trader will do it differently. Here are just some ideas of what can be included and they are by no means exhaustive, far from it. Nobody but you will ever see your entries in your journal. Be brutally frank. Use your journal as a vehicle for improving your trading. Here are just a few ideas to get you started.
- – Did I follow my trading plan for the trade? If not, why not.
- - At what point in the trade did I doubt the trade. If so, why
- - What did I do right in the trade
- - Where did I stumble in the trade?
When you make an error, make a statement of correction. An example: I did not honor my stop in the trade according to my trading plan. I moved it NOT according to plan…therefore, in my next trade, I will adhere to my trading plan as to stops. I will place stops and manage my stops according to my trading plan. This will demonstrate that I am a patient and disciplined professional trader.
