There’s no doubt about it: the /NQ channel is totally broken.
Tech Trend Failure
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
What I Wrote at the Peak
Now that the market is utterly falling to pieces, I was curious to know what I wrote back at the VERY TOP of the market, July 16th, when the VIX was at 11 and I absolutely detested trading and could barely bring myself to compose posts for Slope. Well, here it is – – and it’s about Nvidia. I wrote the following, which should be chiseled into granite with its date:
For 22 months (!), NVDA has politely traveled within the tidy confines of an ascending price channel. I suggest keeping a close eye on this dashed midline. A failure here would open up the prospect for a trip down to the price gap, marked in green, at $96.01, which is a long, long way from here.
So we went from this:
Preparing Profits
Let me state first off, both to you and myself, the least productive use of my time and emotional energy on this historic morning: checking to see the profits I missed by closing out any positions in recent days. The amounts are going to be huge, I already know that. But I also know that I’ve got ten bearish positions now, all of which were already profitable, which are going to absolutely rock when the market opens. So I’m going to break character and not engage in nonstop self-pity and self-recrimination.
I’m also not going to indulge in told-ya-so’s, not only because it’s childish and tedious, but also because I might just as well stand in the mirror and say the same stuff (see above paragraph). My suggestion weeks ago that NVDA would go to $96 seemed absurd. At this point, we have exceeded that formerly lunatic guess. And on it goes. My dark predictions are all coming true, only way too early.
(more…)The Bottom Falls Out
I am a bear. I have six figures in put options. And world markets are collapsing.
That’s where the good news ends.
As a person who can never be happy, let me share the bad news:
- I am 30% in cash
- I had puts in NVDA, NFLX, and a variety of other stocks that are going to get wiped out
- The puts I have have nothing to do with tech, the weakest sector
- My most fervant wish was for a bounce that I could sell into, and that quite clearly isn’t happening.
Thus, although I am virtually assured of massive profits the moment the opening bell rings, those profits will be utterly watered down, and I would be irresponsible to sell into this much weakness. I will almost certainly be “stuck” with way more cash than I wanted, after waiting for the past goddamned two years for the market to get knitting needles shoved into its eyeballs.
(more…)Bottomless Pit
I’ve made the point many times before, but it bears repeating: the only firm support for a stock is $0. When you have an equity such as Corsair Gaming (CRSR), shown below, which is at lifetime lows, there’s absolutely nothing holding it up except for the fact that there’s no such thing as a negative stock price.
