Let me state first off, both to you and myself, the least productive use of my time and emotional energy on this historic morning: checking to see the profits I missed by closing out any positions in recent days. The amounts are going to be huge, I already know that. But I also know that I’ve got ten bearish positions now, all of which were already profitable, which are going to absolutely rock when the market opens. So I’m going to break character and not engage in nonstop self-pity and self-recrimination.
I’m also not going to indulge in told-ya-so’s, not only because it’s childish and tedious, but also because I might just as well stand in the mirror and say the same stuff (see above paragraph). My suggestion weeks ago that NVDA would go to $96 seemed absurd. At this point, we have exceeded that formerly lunatic guess. And on it goes. My dark predictions are all coming true, only way too early.
I woke up at 2 a.m., thinking it was time to get the day started, but, well, it was way too early. I will have some important decisions to make early on, particularly involving whether to hold on to ANY positions in light of this bloodbath. I’ll take things one chart at a time. I am typing these words an hour before the opening bell, and it’s already quite evident today is going to be one of the most historic days in market history.
The VIX has absolutely exploded in what has got to be one of the top ten moves – perhaps even top five – in the history of the markets.
Bitcoin had enjoyed the “Trump Bump” only days ago, which was immediately followed by an utter collapse.
Which should kind of throw some cold water on this harebrained idea.
The NASDAQ has been engaging in an amazing waterfall lower, now that the AI Idiocy spell has been broken.
The Russell’s Fibonaccis have done a yeoman’s job, and we’re right near major support. I will also hoist a beer stein to tell my premium members, once again, how my Wednesday evening post has got to be one of my best ever. Yay, me.
Going back to crypto a moment, and as more evidence that this morning is probably an important medium-term bottom, Ethereum has collapsed to a major supporting trendline.
Trendlines are important! As I pointed out a full week ago, the fracture of the /ES trendline was big news. This is just pitch-perfect stuff.
The ONLY asset that’s up right now is bonds, which will only increase pressure on the Fed to completely humiliate itself and drop rates.
Lastly, this collapse has returned us to the lowest levels of the year, in mid-April.
My spidey sense is that we’re going to reach an important bottom within hours. I am VERY uneasy about just closing everything and going to hang out on a park bench for a few weeks to wait for another shorting opportunity.
I’ll say this in closing, however. Most of you know how much I hate the bromide “Trade the chart in front of you.” This is one of the few times in which that expression will actually make a lot of sense to abide.
Good luck to us both.
