The Sahm indicator is a respected predictor of recessions. It has recently crossed above a crucial threshold (I’ve placed a horizontal line to highlight it). Do you have a favorite candidate for President? Great! Hope that the OTHER person wins, because they’re in for a hell of a time.
![](https://slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/slopechart_FR_SAHMCURRENT-640x434.jpg)