April has been absolute murder for the bears, and I’m not sure I should even use the plural of that noun anymore since I’m not sure anyone besides me is loopy enough to still be short. Anyway, below are the first portion of the seventeen, most of which were new entries to take advantage of Friday’s mega-rally. As always, I have zoomed in on the most salient portions and show the stop-loss with a dashed red line.
Maybe this post should be titled “shattered dreams” instead. Once again, the bears were seduced into a picture-perfect setup and had every bit of evidence to suggest that the market would be grinding its way lower for months, only to have the entire global asset system shocked by a couple of chest paddles. We haven’t had an honest-to-God bear market in almost two decades.
Most index charts look like the S&P 500 below: that is to say, a wedge setup, a rounded top, a failure, and then BLAMMO, the sharpest, most vicious bear-breaking rally in market history. Even at this great distance, the bull run in August looks completely out of place.
While some stocks went up (especially in the Oil/Gas and Fertilizer/Ag sectors) and many went down during the worst of the war related headlines (and in software, the AI-mageddon hype), stocks in the Uranium sector maintained an orderly correction/consolidation that began pre-war.
The sector finally came to a technical “buy” as it generally tested the uptrending 200 day moving averages (orange line on the chart below) and maintained its major uptrend. When is an optimum time to buy a market or stock? During a correction within an intact uptrend, that’s when.
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