Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Russell Retracement

By -

I was perturbed today when I saw the Russell push above its June 2 high………..

However, the breakout quickly failed, and as we all know, a failed bullish breakout is a good sign. Out of curiousity, I laid down a Fibonacci retracement spanning October 11, 2007 to March 10, 2008. Lo and behold, today's high nailed the 61.8% line virtually to the penny!

So I am still in position on my IWM puts, and I've got a nice, clean stop above the retracement.

King Midas

By -

A few days ago, I speculated that:

  • Gold would rise short-term
  • Oil would rise short-term
  • An opportunity to re-enter puts on agricultures would present itself near the end of that brief run

Well, I was right on all of these, but I never imagined it would be so short-lived! I thought we'd be in for, say, a week or so of the above. Instead it only took a couple of days.

This is one instance where my impatience worked for me. I took a big bullish position in ABX (for the gold play) at 32.50 and got out two days later at 35.50 (these were calls, so the percentage gain was very good). I also had a bunch of PXD with the same result. But, again, look how swiftly gold went up and then resumed its fall!

It's not all wine and roses, though. My bullish play on $XDE didn't work out at all, since the dollar's strength only intensified (as I remarked in a prior post, I am a dollar bull, mainly because I think interest rates are about to shoot higher – – hence my bearish play on $UTIL).

The new opportunity to get puts on agricultural/energy momentum stocks definitely re-appeared, and here are a few favorites.

I say again, I am really amazed at the dollar's strength. Maybe people can visit Europe again some day at reasonable prices!