Some of my posts are measured in feet rather than inches. This is going to be a short one, because there's not much new to say.
As a thought experiment, I'm going to take the viewpoint that I'm wrong on the markets and that things are going to go the opposite of how I'm positioned (perish the thought!) I think it's healthy to look at what things would look like it they "went wrong" so you can be prepared.
The S&P is just grinding away at 1265. This is not good. This might form into a base from which a small rally could be launched. This level must break; there's just no two ways about it. It will take, I suppose, a catalyst in the form of one of the economic reports coming out this week to do so.
The story is much the same with the Dow 30. We have been monkeying around below the Fibonacci line, with the exception of last Friday's thrust toward the broken trendline.
Just to keep on the "worst case" theme, the $NDX (and remember, these are intraday charts, not daily) could be interpreted as having made a nice basing pattern which has retraced to the horizontal line, preparing for an upward thrust.
The Russell is somewhat more encouraging. It is plainly below the retracement, and it is making progressively (albeit very small) lower lows.
Lastly, USO could plausibly be preparing for a push higher here, having solidified in the 90-98 range.
There, I am through thoroughly scaring myself. But it is very dangerous to get totally wed to a certain point of view. You never know what form the next government bailout is going to take. And I'll be the first to admit that, given any reason to do so, the investment banks and financials in general are in a position for a big push higher, given how horribly battered they've been.
That's honestly all I have to say at this point. Maybe tomorrow will give us some direction. But some days are just like today – – – just not much to it, and not much to say!
