Could this be a bounce play? Sure, maybe in the short term. But long-term……..this is not a chart I'd want to own.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Spoiling the Open with Hedges
Well, the opening bell should have been sensational for me today. I have 105 shorts, and the /ES was down nearly 20 points during the wee hours of this morning. Plus many of my shorts were energy-focused, and energy was getting killed.
However……….
Near the closing bell last week, I decided to hedge my shorts with a medium-sized SPY long, a large OIH long, a GLD long, and……..gack………a BP long position.
The GLD position, which I exited already, gave me a 1% return, and it was my largest long, so that was nice. But my SPY long eliminated that profit, and my OIH long – which I've also closed – got smacked down nearly 5%. As for BP……..the stock is in a free fall, and its P/E is about 5 (yes, five) and its dividend is into the double-digits.
So all those profits from the 105 shorts were neutralized by these 3 ugly longs. So, yeah, I was hedged all right. I hedged myself right out of a profit, because even though the S&P is down .81%, I am up just a tiny bit. It's disappointing.
Suffice it to say, I won't be tempted to play the "catch a falling knife" game with Gulf-wrecker BP, no matter how compelling its fundamentals appear to be. The Euro right now seems to be clawing its way out of its hole, but I don't think it's going to get anywhere past 1.225 or so, so we might be setting ourselves up for a better tumble today.
Anyway, I just wanted to share this object lesson as to how a "hedge" can be a "profit neutralizer". I wouldn't be whining, I suppose, if the Dow was up 150 and BP had sealed the leak and was soaring; that's the kind of uncertainty we traders face every waking hour.
We’re All Equal
It's Brian Johnson and here's a video showing a few more things to watch for as we move into a new month of trading. Price action doesn't show much interest quite yet from the bulls so it's fair to stay neutral to bearish as we enter the week. Watch for breaks mentioned in the video and be careful if you're trying to swing trade the Indices in through here. Give the markets time to find a real direction.
