Possible Short-Term Swing High Today (by Springheel Jack)

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I've been looking carefully at various charts and I would be sugarcoating it to suggest that the bears aren't in significant trouble here. This move up from 1037 ES has been very powerful and there is every reason to think it may go higher.

Looking at my SPX:VIX daily chart we failed to break the broadening ascending wedge from the May low, and the obvious next wedge target would take us to the 1130 – 1150 area on SPX, which would be little short of disaster for the bear case as the main declining channel from the April high would be convincingly broken:

100903 SPX_VIX Daily Wedges

Here's the main declining channel on SPX. I'm seeing the upper trendline in the 1106 SPX area today and that is close enough that it could be tested today:

100903 SPX Daily Main Declining Channel

In the short term I was saying yesterday morning that I was expecting sideways to up chop yesterday and today. We had that yesterday and a small broadening ascending wedge formed on the ES 5min over the last day that could take us up to test that main declining trendline today:

100903_ES_5min_BA_Wedge

I'm still favoring more upside on ES and downside on USD today. EURUSD has been slowly rising towards my target in the 1.292 area, though there is an argument for a reversal at 1.29:

100903_EURUSD_60min_Possible_IHS_Forming

The bears aren't entirely out of the game yet though, at least not while the flight to safety trades are still looking bullish. We've seen some pullbacks in long treasuries and yen this week, but they're both building rectangles which despite being called rectangle tops or bottoms are generally continuation patterns. Here's the rectangle on USDJPY:

100903_USDJPY_60min_Rectangle

Precious metals are also looking very strong and silver looks as though it may be making a major breakout. If yesterday's gains are sustained then we will have a major break up and once silver rises past $20, the obvious target is $30:

100903_Silver_Weekly_Triangle_or_IHS

I'm expecting to see a short term swing high today, though looking at the spike up while I've been writing I may of course be mistaken. If I'm right though, we're close to the high today which I'd expect to see in the 1104.5 to 1107.5 ES area. After that I'm expecting to see a retracement early next week into the 1070 area.