Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

In Case We Weren’t Cynical Enough

By -

A thoughtful Sloper sent me the latest Rolling Stone article Why Isn't Wall Street in Jail? by Matt Taibbi which is going to be on the Rolling Stone web site next month. It's the sort of maddening article which shows – yet again – how Wall Street is nothing but a gigantic cabal of rich, sophisticated criminals who can break any laws with utter impunity.

Reading such an article doesn't do anyone any good, unless you like to have your blood pressure soar, since these scumbags are going to continue to get away with it in perpetuity (even the "liberal" Obama has done nothing but grease the skids for these guys). But the closing paragraph of the article sums it up nicely:

The mental stumbling block, for most Americans, is that financial crimes don't feel real; you don't see the culpritswaving guns in liquor stores or dragging coeds into bushes. But these frauds are worse than common robberies. They'recrimes of intellectual choice, made by people who are already rich and who have every conceivable social advantage,acting on a simple, cynical calculation: Let's steal whatever we can, then dare the victims to find the juice to reclaim their money through a captive bureaucracy. They're attacking the very definition of property — which, after all,depends in part on a legal system that defends everyone's claims of ownership equally. When that definition becomestenuous or conditional — when the state simply gives up on the notion of justice — this whole American Dream thing recedes even further from reality.

Understanding The Big Picture (by Ultra Trading)

By -

A few weeks back after the banks reported earnings, I compared the reserve rates for the top four banks. Clearly, WFC stood out as having a lower reserve as a percent of total loans and leases. 

With the recent and sudden departure of the WFC CFO rumors began circulating as to why Howard Atkins left a high paying job, very suddenly and at a relatively young age. Well today one of the best bank analysts is shedding light as he questions the validity of WFC's disclosure process.

"The departure of Atkins, we are led to believe, was not merely the result of personal issues, but reflects an ongoing internal dispute within [Wells Fargo's] executive suite regarding the bank's disclosure," 

There is a lot of noise in the market right now. Bank stocks seem to catch and endless bid but the problems have not gone away. Understanding and staying focused on the bigger picture, beyond the day to day noise is critical. You are better prepared to understand how to respond to the WFC news today and determine if the sell off is an overreaction or in fact true pricing of real risk at WFC.

Submitted by Ultra Trading.  If you would like to read more, please visit - Ultra Trading

Wedges Everywhere (by Springheel Jack)

By -

I know I've been sounding like a broken record lately, but while the market continues to make new highs, the underlying technical picture continues to deteriorate, and I'm still of the view that we're going to see at least a sharp correction soon. Obviously POMO is still force-feeding the market with billions of dollars every day, but that was the case last January as well, and didn't stop SPX from correcting 10% from the high then. I'm doubtful about seeing a major top before QE2 finishes in June, but that's only four months ago now, and on any measure equities are looking rather overbought at the moment, and the pattern setups suggest that the risks are weighted heavily to the downside here.

On the ES daily chart the rising wedge from the July low is still looking pretty good, and I'm expecting at least a return to the lower trendline soon:

Shorter term on the hourly chart there is now another rising wedge on ES with the support trendline in the 1225.75 area at the moment:

On the NQ hourly chart there is yet another rising wedge with a lovely support trendline with five perfect touches so far. I'm expecting some decent downside action as and when it breaks and support is now in the 2380 area:

Elsewhere EURUSD is looking weak and I'm expecting to see more downside today with at least a test of the recent low coming up. I'll post an update on that tomorrow as I want to cover silver, copper and oil today. Silver looks weak with a possible double top on declining RSI. It has tried twice and failed to recapture the lower trendline of the broken rising channel. An H&S pattern may be forming:

Copper also looks weak here with another possible double-top on declining RSI. Another H&S pattern may well be forming:

Oil made a succession of marginally higher highs on declining RSI, and is now correcting. Another H&S pattern may well be forming:

Obviously there is a heavily bearish theme to what I'm seeing, but it is what it is. In my first post of December I was calling for a wave up, and I'm now expecting a wave down. Nothing goes up in a straight line, not even this, the strongest cyclical bull market in history by a wide margin. I'm expecting that we might see a bit more upside today but IMHO at least, when those support trendlines on the ES and NQ hourly charts break down, we'll be moving onto selling the rips for a while.

Interest Rate Derivatives (by Ultra Trading)

By -

Remember back in 2008 each Sunday night seemed to be a new class on the latest financial product that failed.  Guess what?  They are still out there and the risk in many cases is even greater.  So as we watch a market chop up anyone trying to price in reality, time is better served for longer term and or macro traders to study and be prepared for those falling shoes still being levitated by the Fed, FASB and Treasury.

Over the next few days I'll discuss various derivatives.  Derivatives are important financial products but like anything in moderation.  Derivatives have outgrown their intended use and as a result represent major systemic risk to the global economy that still have yet to be addressed.

Below is an example of an interest rate derivative product.  In its most basic definition, all this product does is convert a floating rate to a fixed rate and vice versa. 

GM needs capital and wants to sell debt to GEICO.  They offer to sell $100 million in debt to GEICO for five years at an adjustable rate of 6 month Libor plus 200 bp (2%).  GEICO loves the deal but wants a fixed rate. The interest rate derivative is the product that allows this deal to get done.

Transaction 1 – The selling of debt between GM and GEICO

Screen shot 2011-02-15 at 3.57.57 PM 

Transaction 2 – GEICO converts their adjustable rate to a fixed rate
GEICO needs to find someone who will convert their adjustable rate for a fixed rate.
They call JPM who agrees to buy GEICO's 6 month Libor and will pay GEICO 4%.


Screen shot 2011-02-15 at 3.58.05 PM

The Result

  • GM sold $100 million in debt to GEICO and pays an adjustable rate
  • GEICO invested $100 million in GM at a fixed rate of 6%
  • JPM purchased 6 month Libor for 4% for a period of five years

 

Submitted by Ultra Trading.  If you would like to read more, please visit - Ultra Trading

Gold & Silver Chart Analysis (by Mike Paulenoff)

By -

A mixed bag in the metals sector today, which bears close watching for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Silver Wheaton (SLW), the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX).

The SLV is pushing up towards a challenge of its Jan high at $30.44, although for the first time since the pivot low on Jan 25, the SLV is not leading the charge today. Instead, SLW is out front. The change in profile is bothersome to me, as the SLV needs to retake the leadership role.

While this bears watching, let's also notice that SLW has hurdled its Dec-Feb resistance line (36.25/30 area), which could represent a potentially potent upside breakout if the stock can close above 36.30.

The GLD gapped, up too, but is not as strong as the SLV, and has the look of near-term exhaustion ahead of a pullback. FCX smacked into its Jan-Feb resistance line at 56.50, and has since reversed to the downside in what looks like the end of an initial upmove off of its Jan-Feb lows at 52.30/76.

What is bothersome about FCX is what appears to be a significant downside reversal in copper prices today from multi-year highs, despite the strength in gold and silver. Increasingly, the fortunes of FCX appears to be attached to copper rather than gold, which must be watched closely in the days ahead.

WWe4NBhgj
Originally published on MPTrader.com.