Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Wall of Worry (by Springheel Jack)

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It's rare that the path for any market looks entirely clear, and that's as it should be, as if more upside were guaranteed it would already be priced in and historic. It is a concern that last week's decline looked like a single wave down, and is entirely possible that there is more downside coming as many expect. Fortunately there is a decent looking line in the sand drawn on ES in the 1320-1 area, as an IHS has formed there with a target at 1347. If 1321 is broken with conviction today then the path will look clear to new highs, with Mondays being historically strongly bullish and the first of the month (tomorrow) also historically strongly bullish:

The picture is slightly less clear on NQ, with a resistance zone in the 2335 to 2365 area, with the key levels in the 2335, 2350 and 2365 area. A break with confidence of Friday's 2350 high will look bullish, and a break with confidence of 2368 will open up a retest of the 2400 area:

Copper broke up on Friday and the next obvious target is strong resistance and the potential IHS neckline in the 451 area. There's significant negative divergence on the 60min RSI however and I'm wondering about a retest of broken resistance:

Silver broke up from resistance at the close on Friday and may be forming an IHS with the target at 35.7. There's some negative divergence on RSI suggesting there might be another test of broken resistance and I'll be watching the current short term support trendline:

Oil has a lot of geo-political risk at the moment and increasing unrest in the middle east may well push it up further. It has made the broadening formation target from last week and negative divergence on the chart looks weak short term:

A lot of people, including myself, are looking with great interest at the longer term short setup on Yen, and I've been suggesting for over a week that Yen might have another last push up to deliver a good entry level. USDJPY (inverted Yen) has now reached my highest probability target and reversed there so this looks like an attractive entry for those scaling in to a longer term short Yen position. If I have room I'll post the longer term chart tomorrow to show the full setup

I'm leaning strongly bullish on a break with confidence of the IHS neckline on ES today. Until that happens I'm seeing this as the highest probability reversal area if we are to see another wave down on equities so longs should be cautious until we see that break up.

This Market Is All Long (by Ultra Trading)

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After being beaten for months, shorts have truly capitulated as represented by NYSE short interest.   We've seen endless short covering rallies the past few months but those rallies are running out of fuel.  What happens when the market begins to roll over?  Longs are all invested with cash levels at record lows, while shorts have covered.  Who puts a bid in the market?

When this market corrects and it will happen someday,  there will literally be no one to squeeze.  The bulls will have to rally the market themselves and not the bears for a change.

Submitted by Ultra Trading.  If you would like to read more please visit - Ultra Trading

 

Action in Financials

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I would like to get you thinking about financials into the weekend. All the big financials had unhealthy action today in addition to not closing at the highs as the major indexes did. It was not good. The BKX, WFC, C, JPM, BAC, AIG, GS…and a host of others all posted bearish chart patterns that look like they are going to resolve soon…additionally this pennant on BKX looks like a continuation pattern…

Additionally, the transports did not have an especially strong day either…

By the looks of things its about to get interesting…

 2011-02-25_1952_BKX_2007Marked-01 
 
for a more detailled view of this chart click here

2011-02-26_0937_TransportsMarked 
for a more detailled view of this chart click here