Well, the big day is coming – – Wednesday, April 27th, the one-two punch of the Fed announcement and the first-ever Press Conference. Hold on to your seats!
I will be relieved when the entire spectacle is over. When the day is through, I think one of two possible outcomes is going to be before us:
(1) The oh-so-obvious IHS pattern on the SPY will be in full swing, and we'll be on our way to (groan….) 143 or so, or;
(2) The bulls will get disappointed by something Shalom says (or doesn't say) with respect to QE2/QE3, and the pattern will fail. This is the outcome I'd like, but I'm sure as hell not putting any big positions out there based on it. No matter what, expect some stomach-churning swings both after the announcement and while his lips are moving.
The IHS patterns over the past year have all played out for the bulls. I don't have any reason to believe this one will be any different, but we shall see.
Incidentally, click-activity went up today, and I really appreciate it. Thank you.