Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
ES and NQ Reach Support (by Springheel Jack)
I love it when a plan comes together. (Predictions Pay! – Editor) My call for 1313 ES and 2310 – 2315 on NQ looked pretty bold on Friday morning but we've made 1312.25 ES and 2316.50 NQ overnight. An exact support trendline hit on both would be slightly lower at 1311.75 ES and 2315 NQ, but it could be that we've seen the lows on both. On ES the support is the lower trendline of a big falling wedge, and it's very important to note that this is a bullish pattern that breaks up 70% of the time, and that the target is the last ES high:
The NQ chart is apparently in direct opposition to the ES chart, as there's a broadening ascending wedge on the chart and these break down 77% of the time. There's no reason for conflict here though, as the NQ pattern is a much larger pattern. The ES falling wedge could play out to new highs on ES (and NQ) while NQ makes another upside hit with a target in the 2500 area before breaking down. I don't know if it will happen that way but it would be a beautiful long setup here and short setup at new highs so I'm hoping it does:
The setup on TF is more speculative, but it looks as though a large H&S may be forming there. If the neckline can hold today, then I'd expect a bounce into the 850-60 area before turning down again. That's very speculative at this stage, but there's decent support in the 810-4 area, and if ES and NQ bounce at support today then that's the likely target area on TF:
EURUSD has moved down very sharply since I posted the broken rising wedge there on Friday morning, and is now well below the wedge target. I won't post that chart this morning, but I will post the DX chart, where there's a very interesting looking IHS that has now broken up with a target at 79.3. This is a potentially very important development, as the declining resistance trendline from the June 2010 high is currently at 77.25. If DX can break up through that trendline then it opens up more upside for USD:
Copper was bullishly divergent on Friday, but broke down from another perfect rising wedge there overnight. I'm a bit more doubtful about this one. The ES and EURUSD rising wedges have already played out to target and ES and NQ are now very close to main current support. As we saw on Friday though, ES and copper can trend in opposite directions short term and it may be that copper will make the 385.25 target. There's decent support at 395 on the way down though and that might hold:
I don't have a good short term read on silver at the moment, but I'm looking at a rising support trendline in the 33.8 area if it retraces further:
I'm not expecting silver to make a new low in the short term. It has hit a key support trendline that should hold for the moment, though we might well see further downside in the next few months:
I'm looking at the current area as a long setup for what could well be a major rally over the next few weeks to new highs on ES and NQ, followed by a possibly amazing short setup at those new highs for a summer pullback. I'm watching those support trendlines on ES and NQ carefully though. If they break then we might well see a retest of the March lows on both.
10 Stocks I am Watching This Week (By Ryan Mallory)
Everyone seems to be concluding that we've got some downside ahead of us going in to the week ahead. As for me – I'm on the fence ready to expect anything. I'm about 60% long going into tomorrow without a single short in the portfolio. I am a bit skeptical of the perceived bearishness out there, just because everyone seems to be hopping on that bandwagon in droves, firing up the short scans and ready to take out anything printing red tomorrow. That is fine and all, but I've seen this market bounce back from worse before, and wouldn't be surprised to see this market once again bounce this week too. But that is just my thoughts and the market is under no obligation to satisfy them.
LONG: Cobalt International Energy (CIE)

SHORT: Adams Express (ADX)

LONG: Celgene (CELG)

SHORT: Patriot Coal Corp. (PCX)

LONG: C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)

SHORT: Google Inc. (GOOG)

LONG: F5 Networks (FFIV)

SHORT: Exide Technologies (XIDE)

LONG: Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN)

SHORT: Vishay Intertech (VSH)

SPY – Corrective Or Something Else? (by Leaf_West)
The question that everyone has is whether or not the bull move off of the summer 2010 lows is over or not? The saying goes … "they don't ring a bell at the top!!". All we have to go by is our Spidey Senses our Nija Level 9 t-shirts and the charts.
So what do the charts tell us …
So far the chart from the past couple of months shows us that price has been giving us classic signs of nice tight trending candles higher and corrective overlapping candles/patterns lower.
Since the March Japan-driven crisis lows, the market has put in higher highs and higher lows … another feather in the bull's cap.
The Moving Averages all remain in a bullish stance … 20ema > 50ema > 100sma > 200sma.
The only real question mark will be answered this coming week I believe … the chart below highlights that the moves higher since the late-April top have been "corrective" in appearance. If the move lower is not over then we should not get a close above Thursday's high of $135.03. To the low side if the ABC corrective move lower is over, we should not get a move below the 50EMA of roughly $133.00 It's a simple as $135 and $133 … until those levels are breached I think traders should be playing it safe.
The above analysis fits in with the look of the 60-minute triangle analysis that I posted on Friday … here is the chart from that post.
Summer of 2010
I thought it might be useful to look back to last summer to review the "look" of that corrective period …
Notice how the bigger waves are mainly overlapping in nature and most of the candles are overlapping in nature. The 20 EMA crossed lower than the 50 EMA and the correction was not really over until a higher low was made and then confirmed when the 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA. By this time helicopter Ben had all the printing presses warmed up and in perfect working condition.
In the end, people are not going to correctly "predict" the direction of the market based on Euro problems, housing foreclosures, or the price of rice in China. The only thing people should really be watching is PRICE. After all there is good reason why people say " PRICE IS KING".
Cheers … Leaf_West and @Leaf_West on Twitter
Something a Sloper Put Together for May







