Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Happy Cinco de Bearo
When I ambled off to bed last night, I was somewhat nervous. Although I had covered all of my large short positions, I still had 88 – yep, 88 – small-to-medium-sized short positions, and zero longs. My belief was that even if the market showed strength Thursday and/or Friday, I could enter one or two very, very large ETF longs to neutralize things until any buying strength was exhausted. Suffice it to say, I went to bed somewhat nervous, and the last quote my sleepy eyes fetched from my bedside iPad was +5.50 on the /ES
You can imagine my relief upon waking at 5:45 and – as always, first thing I do – grabbing my iPad and seeing the /ES was down 8.5 points (and now down 10, as of this writing). What the bulls wanted to see was the green arrow below – that is, the successful test of the neckline and a launch skyward to 1430.
Instead, the +5.50 gain last night when I nervously went to sleep happened to be the most they would get, and it started slowly melting from then on. So I imagine my only regret will be the 43 stocks I have in my Bear Pen watchlist on which I have no positions. Seriously, though, I am grateful for the downdraft this morning, and I intend to keep my wits about me. In other words, gains are fine, but greed can lead one to suboptimal decisions. So let's watch ourselves and our emotions carefully, yes?
NeXT
AAPL Update (by Leaf_West)
One market leader that is actually holding up really well is AAPL … price is actually above the price of May 2nd when its weighting in the NDQ was slashed to 12%. Currently it looks like momentum is regenerating power to allow it to break out of the bull flag pattern ($351 is the break-out price).
I am long AAPL and am using the 50EMA as my stop … My target is for a new all-time high and hopefully either of the 61.8% or 100% pattern target of $367.35 – $380.70.
3:20pm Edit … I also added some $340 calls with this Friday's expiry to my long position as well
Cheers … Leaf_West
Why FSLR Fizzled
The market's been feeling really different lately – – and in a good way.
I feel like I've been going to an exotic dancing club night after night, and each evening Abby Joseph Cohen has come slinking out onto the stage. Worse, with the exception of her upper lip, she hasn't even bothered to shave. For me, it's a combination of revulsion and disappointment.
Ever since OBL was shot-through-the-dayam-haid, the market has felt remarkably different. One of my favorite shorts, First Solar, has blossomed beautifully. It had a couple of properties on its chart that I liked:
(1) A failed bullish breakout, tinted below in yellow. By all rights, this stock should have soared into the 200s. Instead, it wilted like the formerly stiffened giblets of the gentlemen attending the aforementioned strip club;
(2) A failed trendline, circled below in red. This broke the stock once and for all.
The stock might lurch up and down for a while, but there's really no firm bottom I see for FSLR.
