Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Watching the Wedges (by Springheel Jack)
According to my Stock Trader's Almanac, the week after July opex leans bearish, with Dow down 7 of the last 12. Mondays have been modestly bearish too in recent months, though only 5 of the last 10 have closed down so I'm not treating today as bearish leaning. My feeling is that we should see a decent break up soon, though we might see a move down to make a lower low before then. That's a maybe though as support on ES in the 1303.25 area has held on 12 hourly candle tests since last week's low at 1295.25:
Looking at the trading hours charts, SPX is looking pretty bullish to my eye, with a reasonable quality falling wedge that was breaking up at the close on Friday. It looks like SPX will open back within the wedge at the open today but I'd be looking to a second break up through resistance to trigger a decent rally:
There's a similar falling wedge on the Dow as well, though that wedge has not yet broken up. The Dow wedge has a very good support trendline that I'd be expecting to hold on any push downwards today:
TF is still in the declining channel that I posted last week. with some solid looking support in the 822.75 – 833.5 area:
NDX hasn't formed a particular pattern really, but there is a decent resistance trendline as with the others. That trendline broke up on Friday though it may well open back below today:
I posted the possible IHS on SLV last week and suggested that might carry SLV through gap resistance, which it did. I'm wondering now whether SLV has bottomed and next resistance is at 39, with the IHS target at 39.2:
EURUSD is in a tight declining channel, and I'm watching that channel for a break up. On the USD charts of course there is every sign that USD has made a major low, so I'm not looking for any huge rally on EURUSD:
I think that the falling wedges on SPX and Dow are telling us that we're close to a short term low on equities here, and am expecting a strong move up soon. Whether that will be a strong move up to new highs is open to question. Summer rallies tend to be week and there are many clouds hanging over this market. A possible trigger for a strong rally is the US debt ceiling negotiations which may conclude this week.
Toilet Humor
The downstairs bathroom nearest my home office is dutifully equipped at all times with a compendium of comics; the offering might be This Modern World, a Zippy collection, an old Dilbert, or – the current volume – Doonesbury.
Imagine my surprise this morning when I flipped to a color strip from early 1986 that was about, of all things, raising the debt ceiling. It referred to Reagan lifting the ceiling to a then-unthinkable $1 trillion (which is enviable, considering it is now about 14.5 times that amount). Take a look at the comic to see how little has changed in 25 years.
The Evil Plan………….(by BDI)
FWIW, the following is my current take on things: ( Much to the chagrin of fat Pandy )
Both sides in the relentless debt-ceiling debate are getting further and further entrenched, and hardened in their respective positions. If a grand compromise was to be reached, it should have happened by now. The reason for this impasse is clear. Each side knows full well, that if they abandon their principled positions, they will completely alienate their base, and most likely not be in power come November 2012.
The Democrats want to maintain near term spending in place, so as to both appease their liberal base, and more importantly, keep the sputtering economy afloat until the elections. Also, they have Benny & the Jetts in their pocket, ready to give them an extra jolt of QE, a few months before the actual elections takes place.
The Republicans on the other hand, know exactly what brought them back to power, and that was having taken a firm principled position on curtailing massive government over spending. The critical Tea-Party vote certainly made that crystal clear. They also know, that if they force Obuma's hand by demanding and obtaining major upfront reductions in spending, it will most likely stall the economy going into the critical elections. Thus, putting further blame on Obuma's mis-handling of the economy.
The point here, is simply that both sides know, that if they give in to the other in the slightest, they will seal their fate come election time.
Thus, having said this, my view is that the following scenario will come to fruition; As the impasse closes in on the August 2nd deadline, Obuma & Geithner will instruct Benny & the Jetts to orchestrate a brief very sharp waterfall decline in the Dow, so as to scare the pants off of the Republicans, forcing them to the table for a compromise. This also may very well explain why we got that incredulous moon shot out of nowhere, in the face of continued worsening economic fundamentals. They simply used the supposed Greek band-aid as an excuse to turbo charge a rally, so as to give themselves the necessary room for the pending planned waterfall.
Evil plan a la Tarp 2.0 is in place…..
Consider yourselves warned…..and position yourselves accordingly as we approach the August 2nd day of reckoning.
POTW: Combovers
The Peeve Of The Week (POTW) is an occasional feature on Slope which allows me to (a) gripe about something which bugs me, whether justified or not (b) put up a post when there's nothing in particular I want to say about the market. In spite of its moniker, the POTW may or may not shown up weekly. In any event, here's a new entry:
I have a deep fondness for authenticity, and in a world increasingly saturated in fakeness, those things that are genuine are increasingly precious.
Much of the fakery in the modern world relates to physical appearance. Women have fake boobs, fake rears, and fake faces. Men have fake chests, fake foreheads, and – – all too often - fake hair.
Perhaps I'm being insensitive, blessed as I am with a very full head of hair at whatever ripe old age I currently am. However, one thing worse than masking baldness with a rug is to take whatever surviving hairs you have and draping them over the top of your head in an effort to simulate follicular fullness. There are 45,000 people in Palo Alto, but there's this one chap I remember seeing many times, only because his massive combover is so obvious and sad.
If your hair is falling out, don't worry about it! It's no sin to be partly or wholly bald; just take a look at all the shaved heads in modern culture to see how sexy some people consider this look. But if you want to announce to the world that you desperately crave their approval, just do a combover. It works every time.







