Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Hero

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The Headline reads "Ben Bernanke saved the global economy.  So why does everyone hate him?"

I don't know for sure why everyone hates him; he seems like a nice enough fellow.  But it could have something to do with the smug, myopic and academic surety with which he goes about his business of remotely managing an economy that should be allowed to purge itself of the excess leverage and unmanageable debt that has been systematically layered in over the years, enriching some and relatively impoverishing many.

It could be because people who care enough to see through the headlines know that he is systematically employing more of what already brought the system to this sorry state.  They hate him because he and his ego are reworking the Treasury market to paint a desired picture that all is well and good.  They hate him because being astute enough to extrapolate forward, they know that what he is doing paints things a certain way in the short term (for short term benefits to some) while hard wiring in future damage that would continue the progression – measured over years in the era of Inflation onDemand – of ever rising moral hazards.

I don't hate him, because that emotion is counter productive when it comes to managing this mess.  He is just the self-satisfied face of those entities that would seek to destroy me (and my big picture investment stance) if I were to allow that to happen.

Look at him… look into those eyes… look at the powerful monetary god casting his gaze upon you.  He cannot hurt you if you understand his modus operandi and his true mission, which is to inflate the banking system out of a black hole that was created by policy the likes of which is being employed today.  Feel sorry for him, because his mission really is an impossible one.

I continue to wonder whether he is an evil genius or an impossibly dull stooge (as compared to his predecessor) who actually believes his own b/s.  The US Treasury yield curves have been reworked by a powerful macro monetary manager.  The curves are now telling us that there are few concerns about inflation, thus the Fed is free to keep ZIRP on tap indefinitely.  We also see the economy revving up a bit… yet still no sign of a withdrawal of ZIRP.

What is this man afraid of?  Go ahead, let the economy fly of its own merit.  Go ahead genius, I dare you.

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com       http://www.biiwii.com

Flagging Retracements (by Springheel Jack)

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Cobra was saying at the weekend that the Dow is the leading index from a technical perspective at the moment. That may well be right. If so then the low on Friday at rising support from the October low looks particularly important, and it's obvious from the chart what will need to happen next if we are to see any more retracement this week. On a break below trendline and level support in the 13000 area the obvious next target is in the 12750 area. Without that break the main upward trend remains unbroken, and the next obvious upside target is in the 13400 area:

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Wave Analysis of USD (by Avi Gilburt)

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Due to the seemingly broken correlations that many have been witnessing regarding the USD, it has raised many questions regarding the direction of the USD. Many people believe that the USD is headed much higher in the near term. This mass confusion seems to be due to the fact that the old correlations between the USD and so-called “risk” assets are no longer holding as true. But, that may not continue for very long.

However, the USD has been acting exactly as expected within our Elliott Wave analysis over the last several months, and almost to the penny. As of late, the USD bottomed exactly where we expected it would in late February, and then topped exactly where we expected it would a little over a week ago.

Based upon this pattern, the USD is now setting up for a strong decline that will probably begin within the next week. However, it may still have one more small upwards retracement before its next expected precipitous drop.

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The Rain in Spain……Evil Plan 47.0 (by BDI)

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Are the embolden bulls going to continue their torrid rampage through the narrow streets of Pamplona, skewering every petrified bear that stands in their path?   Is the energizer bunny going to simply hop, skip, and jump directly to Dow 15,000 by Easter Sunday?  Will the mad mad mad market mavens, falling all over themselves, calling for the traditional, pitiful, end of quarter window-dressing ramp, be proven correct once again?  Is our future so bright, that we will always have to wear shades from now on?  

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Parabolic Trading Behavior: Some Observations

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Given the action in our good friend AAPL, I thought I would do a little look back at other parabolas and see if there were any similarities that may give us an indication as to when this thing is finished.  I see a couple of things that I think we can take with us.

  • 1.  Volume spikes tend to occur with breakouts and are initiatory in the beginning of these moves, but occur with the tops as the move progresses (but you usually see the volume pick up a little on price resistance breakouts).
  • 2. If any resistance lines are formed they tend to be the best points to take profits.
  • 3. If there is an ascending triangle or rising wedge to form, it tends to happen near the middle of the move.
  • 4. Outside reversal days a.k.a. bearish engulfing patterns, often mark tops with above average, but not necessarily the highest volume.

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