Just wanted to say a quick hello to my fellow Slope-a-Dopes from la belle France. I'm in Bretagne for a couple of weeks hanging with my cousins. I just had to get away from the markets for a while. I have been so dead wrong for the past 2 months that I needed a break.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
It’s My Parity, and I’ll Cry If I Want To
I believe the EUR/USD is going to approach parity within the next year. All the nonsense we've seen in Europe over the past couple of years is going to start giving way to reality, and even with Helicopter Ben's efforts to devalue the US dollar, the Euro is going to do a better job pushing its way down.
Below shows the past half-decade or so, plainly illustrating the three instances of a Euro-swoon. As long as we can crack that ascending trendline I've drawn (which is quite close at this point), we should continue our way lower. As with all things financial, it'll never move in a straight line, but over a period of months, my opinion is that we'll break all the lows seen in this chart.
I've highlighted the current pattern below. I'm most focused on how the behavior of the EUR/USD is analogous to the prior two instances, but I'd also point out the substantial head and shoulders pattern in the making.
Here's a much longer-term perspective. As you can see, my target is about $1.10 sometime in the middle of 2013. It should be an interesting ride.
Shake, Shake, Rattle, Rattle But No Roll
That was the story for the week. I think there are hardly any bears left in town. And I forgot how long the major indices have been going up without even a 1% correction. But the fuel tank is empty and the rocket has been going up on vapors as you can see.
GBPUSD , The US Dollar, and QE (by Springheel Jack)
I was writing up my rather mixed view on GBPUSD today for someone, and I thought I might as well post the result for general comments so here it is. 🙂
Cable is complicated and the first thing to look at is the big picture chart first to show the overall context. Overall the long term setup looks bullish as you can see from the monthly chart since 1985, unless the current support trendline from the 2009 low breaks:
Money Flow for March Week One
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of March, 2012.
The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that the YM, ES and NQ made a higher close than the prior week on higher volumes. The ES did not close above its 2011 high of 1373.50, but made a higher closing high. The NQ broke out of and closed above its upper channel. The TF made a lower weekly close for a second consecutive week on higher volumes…it's also the only one not to have made a higher weekly close in February since Week 1…one to watch for possible continuing weakness, particularly if it breaks and holds below its uptrending lower channel and Fibonacci extension confluence level around 796.00.
