Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Recently Bearish Thursday (by Springheel Jack)

By -

There are three main options that I'm looking at on SPX over the next few days and today is the key day for the first option:

1. We see a failure at immediate declining resistance (best seen on 15min chart) under the lower bollinger band and the daily 50 SMA as well, so this is a strong resistance area. This option sees an immediate continuation of the downtrend with a likely low made in 2 to 4 days. 

2. SPX breaks over this very steep declining resistance and heads towards the middle bollinger band and potential channel resistance in the 1400 area. Depending on the speed of the rally we may well see failure at resistance just over 1390 (1387 ES area) before the downtrend resumes. 

3. SPX breaks over that resistance, the middle bollinger band, and potential channel resistance to test the highs and if broken, then moves up to test the 1442 SPX pivot level. 

For the last two options I'll be watching the 15min RSI for negative divergence from overbought. If we see that then that would be a strong short signal. If that then failed to deliver a new low I'd be expecting new highs soon. Here's how that looks on the SPX daily chart:

(more…)