Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
30 Year/2 Year Yield Curve Forecasting Deflation?
The 30 year / 2 year Treasury yield curve has been on a steady march higher since 2007. This makes sense since that was the year things started falling apart in inflated, debt saturated developed global economies, led by the nation that showed 'em how it's done when it comes to economic management by inflation; the US.
When long term yields are rising faster than short term yields, it is a sign of stress building toward either a breakout in inflation expectations or, as has been the case thus far since 2007 (and really, since the age of Inflation onDemand began in 2001), impending reversal of the excesses. Unfortunately, in an age where economies are managed by inflation (by monetization of Treasury/Sovereign debt in service to increasing money supplies) these reversals tend to be shall we say, violent.
Shorting Consumer Discretionary
Very clean broken trendline. I'll be using 44.80 as my stop on this one.
Bullish Overnight (by Springheel Jack)
I was expecting consolidation yesterday followed by continuation down today, but that's not what the charts are suggesting this morning. Dow closed up yesterday as the stats suggested, but Nasdaq had a strong continuation down day. The support trendline of the NQ declining channel was hit and overnight there was a slightly lower low on positive RSI divergence. This is a bullish setup short term and suggests a move to test channel resistance in the 2725 area, with some shorter term declining resistance in the 2690 area
