In my post from January 10, I had speculated that the S&P had a measured move target of 1424. I'm afraid this prediction turned out quite nicely. We are just about there.
Looking across a broad array of indexes, we seem to be in "almost there" mode just about everwhere. Some indexes have a little more room to run; others are virtually out of room. The NASDAQ Composite has – – maybe — a bit of remaining bull run toward that tinted target above.
A similar circumstance is seen with the NASDAQ 100 (I've tinted beneath the areas upon which I am basing the measured move).
The S&P is much closer; indeed, even a little blip up Tuesday would do the trick.
My only large short holding is FXE which, long-term, continues to look great but, short term, looks a little dangerous. Even one strong day might take me out of this position. I'm obviously watching it closely.
Today I entered a new short position on GDX (which has been getting a lot of positive press lately, even here, which I guess is kind of the contrarian argument against my contrarian opinion). I'm keeping a tight stop on this one. Its index, shown below, shows that it wouldn't take much to take things up to the next level, the gap fill at the lowest blue line.
The one puzzle point for me is bonds versus stocks. Bonds have a very handsome topping pattern. But if bonds are poised for a tumble, wouldn't that simply propel stocks higher? Perhaps. But i think people are far too convinced the correlationship between stocks and bonds is precisely -1. It isn't. I've looked at this closely, and sometimes they are strongly positively correlated, sometimes they are strongly negatively correlated, and sometimes they couldn't care less about each other. So don't read too much into my bearishness on bonds.
And, with that, I bid you a fond farewell. I'll be pack here Tuesday morning. Same Slope time. Same Slope channel.
