The key resistance trendlines were tested and broken yesterday, and the setup this morning looks clearly bullish. We might see a pullback to retest broken resistance in trading hours, but on ES and NQ those retests have already happened overnight. On NQ the break up from the broadening descending wedge has been very classical with a break, the retest and move up. The pattern target is at the 2012 highs in the 2792 area and Bulkowski gives these an average 79% probability of making that target area:
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Hurricanes Hardly Happen
Three Potential Breakouts to Watch (by TraderHR)
Checking on the Miners Analog
So, where are we at with the gold miners analog?
Well, so far, the analog has been working amazingly well (for months, actually), and I'm going to suppose we're in about mid-August 2008. Here are the past and present charts.
On a percentage basis, we fell almost exactly the same amount as in 2008, and if the analog continues to hold, we've got a bit of a bounce in the offing. Once that bounce is over – – again, assuming the analog holds – – a more severe drop is just around the corner. I've put an arrow at the spot that I think we are approximately located right now.

