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I was watching for a possible strong reversal yesterday but there was nothing to see, with the day following the standard bull format of early weakness followed by a rise for the rest of the day. On the daily chart SPX tested the 50 DMA, walking up the now rising upper bollinger band, and getting closer to the next serious resistance level above at 1357-8, with the April low at 1357.38 and the 100 DMA at 1358.72:
Have we bottomed for the summer? The simple answer is, quite possibly.
My work was looking for three things to come together:
So where are we now? Stocks such as BHP and ITUB have indeed broken their October '11 lows. GDOW and many energy related names, such as SU, have yet to break their October '11 lows. Let's take a look at BHP first. A global commodity megacap, it has been leading the market lower. Of the leading stocks that I follow, it has one of the best technical structures. It is currently overbought on the daily chart. I would look for some selling this week, followed by a possible move higher into mid-July to backtest it's broken trendline coming off its November '08 low.
Having fled my GDX options position this morning, I'm simply going to wait for a better (higher) price before having a go at shorting miners again.
In the meanwhile, I'd like to point out that one of the most battered issues, Jaguar, might be primed for a bounce. These are super risky, but the percentage moves can be substantial.
Oh, incidentally, I did re-enter my big FXE long (entry price 125.05, stop 124.99) as my current long hedge. It's showing a profit, so – – so far, so good, on that one.
Well, the huge Sunday gaps (in green) erased all the bullish news (tinted in teal) for two weeks in a row. The question becomes: will this week continue to be a repeat of last week (that is, the "fade the news" drop will be shaken off, and we'll simply move higher).
