TLT Correcting

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This tight index range over the past week has been the hot topic of discussion lately as to the direction from here, but I think I see something here that is worth noting.  Whether because its too crowded of a trade or some other reason, I see TLT as being likely in for more weakness over the coming couple of weeks after which, I think we may have a VERY nice shorting opportunity in equities.  Maybe.  First, check the TLT chart.

TLT trend analysis - Aug 13, 2012

The following points I would argue are facts.  After that, we can interpret them.

1. The TLT uptrend was very strong, then it lost momentum in June and July.
2. It broke its four month uptrend line at the end of July.
3. Short-term, TLT is still making lower highs and lower lows and intermediate trends begin as short-term trends.
4. TLT has gained 22% since its March low and could probably use a decent correction.
5. In the last couple of weeks, the USD has pulled back and defensive RS has also begun to let up indicating a slight unwind of the defensive play.  This is a BIG confirmation of the bond weakness signal.

With these premises, I turn to my channels using the major intermediate pivots.  Coming off of the July high, you have to look for a mirror of that line.  TLT gapped through it and now I see that it is finding resistance at the lower channel line very consistently.  Therefore, I see markets rallying not so much as a great desire to buy, but just as a reaction to the bond selling.  The money has to go somewhere.  I see TLT making a 50% retracement to the last major resistance breakout at $120 before we get any change in trend.  This will also allow the equity indices to test the top of their respective channels.  Good "carefully calculated probabilities" to you, Folks.

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