I was going to give this post the subject line "Shit Or Get Off the Pot", but I was afraid I would offend someone (oh, wait a sec…….oops.) In any event, the reason for either title is easy enough to understand with one glance at the S&P 500 for the past four freaking days:
Hanging man after hanging man. That's what we've got, boys and girls. The market wants to fall, but The Powers That Be will simply not permit it.
God alone knows when TPTB will finally allow such a fall (or simply lose their grip), but by God, it's going to be glorious, because 99.99% of the entire blinkered public is (understandably) certain that market drops simply don't exist anymore. The market goes only one way: up (Apple notwithstanding).
The NASDAQ is still banging around beneath its broken long-term support.
And the NDX is trapped, as it has been for a couple of weeks now, in a comically tiny trading range.
The only big equity short I've got going is the ever-so-boring Dow Utilities, which is far better configured for a drop than any of the other indexes out there.
I would also quietly point out that the Broker/Dealer index is at a level (approximately 100) which has served as a meaningful turnaround point for the market. Yes, we have gone higher on occasion, but it seems to me this is a likely exhaustion point, particularly considering the blowout earnings from GS and JPM are now part of history and don't have the opportunity to goose XBD any more.
For myself, I've been adding to my short positions, and I am fairly aggressively positioned right now. My largest shorts are XLU, TLT, and FXE, and I've got many dozens of teeny little positions besides that.
So we remain at a stalemate, although I suppose once a critical mass of earnings reports are done, maybe this market will make up its mind where to go next. That's it for me this evening, and I'll see you in the morning. Thanks for swinging by my little corner of the Internet, and continued good luck to you!