Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Miner Skyfall Continues Apace

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There's no probably no short idea for which I've received more flak over the prior year than miners (symbol GDX). Yes, my analog on them broke, but the fact is that, over time, my bearish disposition on them has been correct.

The breakdown is accelerating. I think this continues to be one of the best shorts out there. The one thing I've learned is not to dare utter such things on ZeroHedge, which tends to be Kook Central. I'll stay here, where a few folks actually don't believe gold is heading to $5,000 an ounce.

0125-gdx

AAPL Near Primary Support (by Springheel Jack)

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AAPL blew straight through the support trendline from early 2009 at the open yesterday and is now very close to testing weekly (LOG) rising channel support from 2003. This is AAPL's primary support trendline and a break below it would be a major technical break. Now that AAPL is close to that line I am refining the target to 440 plus or minus 5. If we see this trendline break I then have the next major support level around 360 and it's worth mentioning here that a percentage decline of that magnitude (to 360) from the 2012 high would be in line with the declines in both 2006 and 2008:

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What Will It Take?

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North Korea loudly proclaimed it was making a nuclear weapon to be fired at the United States. The largest company on the planet has lost one-third of its market value, destroying hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth in the span of a few months. And, based on this, the market on a number of measures reached the highest levels ever in world history.

Well, Apple has been talked to death, and frankly, I think in the weeks ahead, people are going to realize it's basically a company past its prime and not really worth yacking about. No one has given me a medal (or a chest to pin it on) for my oh-so-right prediction about Apple, but I'll say what I've said before: you will never see this stock again at $700, and you can expect it to fart around in the 400s (and, occasionally, lower 500s) in the months ahead. As the chart shows below, we are close to major support, and a retard-o-bounce is a strong possibility.

0124-finalAAPL

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Are Binary Options Regulated?

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If you are interested in investing but you don’t like the long wait that
traditional investments require, binary options trading might be a good option
for you. So, what do you need to know about binary options and what are the
regulations?

What
Are Binary Options?


Binaryoptions

 

Binary options is an interesting type of investment because there is no
fixed buyer and seller, and no traded assets. This is different than every
other type of investment. So, you make contracts based on your foresight about
whether certain assets will move up in value or down. You then get a payout
based on whether your prediction was right or not. Brokers make money from both
sets of traders making the contracts.

What
Are the Regulations?


Regulations

Binary options is still a relatively new idea, so there are no regulations
yet. That leads to a lot of confusion because binary options fall under
different categories, depending on which country you ask. For instance, the UK
says binary options are part of the gaming industry because it is essentially
fixed rate betting. Other countries view binary options as a short-term
investment. That’s why regulations are probably on the way—to define binary
options and create rules to protect people and investors.

Some people say there will never be regulations while others say it is
inevitable. The most probably cause that regulations are on the way is that
NADEX (North America Derivatives Exchange) and CBOE (Chicago Board of Exchange)
recently added binary options to their offerings. Additionally, regulations
would allow countries to tax binary options and make money off of it, which has
obvious benefits for them.

So, when regulations on binary options finally do come around, it will
probably be a slow process. If you remember back to when FOREX trading was a
new trend, the regulations were slow to come in. But just because there are no
regulations, does that mean you shouldn’t participate?—no.

Should
You Invest in Binary Options?


Invest

Just because there are no regulations doesn’t mean you shouldn’t participate
in binary options. As a matter of fact, it makes it one of the best times to
get involved because the government is not interfering with your options or
taking taxes—that gives you a lot of power.

Future regulations, however, probably will be a good thing because it will
ensure brokers are licensed and not able to take more than their fair share.
It’s probably going to be a long road to regulations, though, so get prepared
for lots of changes.

Binary options aren’t for everyone, but if you know how to do good research
on stocks, you will probably be good at binary options, too. It isn’t
rocket science, and there is a bit of luck involved, but the risks are
calculated and many people have already been pretty successful.

Have you experimented with binary options yet? What has your experience
been?

In conjunction with Affiliate Media, Inc., Michaela McNamara established BinaryReview.com in 2012 with the intention of providing new options traders with the tools, reviews and information they need to profit from binary options trading. 

Michaela joined Affiliate Media Inc. in 2011 as the company’s digital content editor. In addition to spearheading BinaryReview.com, she manages the content direction for the company's websites with the goal of creating and providing trusted, engaging and interactive content. Email her atmichaela@affiliatemedia.com

They Get PAID For This?!?

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It may seem hard to believe, but when I was in college, I was interested in being a securities analyst at an investment bank. I naively thought they did something similar to what I do now, which is know an industry deeply, study a lot of charts, and write earnest, thoughtful ideas about what they saw. Instead, experience has taught me that analysts are either overpaid shills for the investment bank or shameless attention-whores.

As an example of that second type, let us turn our attention to the following news item, published just days ago:

0124-topeka

For some reason, these geniuses thought the Big Round Number of 1,000 wasn't sufficient, so they upped the ante to a series of repeating digits (I suppose $2222 struck even them as questionable). This morning, I read that they have "tweaked" their model and given the price target a "haircut" (yes, these are the actual wordss they used) and the figure is now…………$888 (which should surely appeal to Chinese investors).

Of course, while these guys are cashing in huge paychecks, I'm here in my corner of the blogosphere castigating you good people to click a freakin' advertisement once in a blue moon and writing stuff like How Apple Became Japan last year which stated, in no uncertain terms:

I imagine AAPL will be in the low 400s next year and will meander around relatively trendlessly for years to come. Its multi-thousand percent gain will be a part of financial history, just like similar gains enjoyed many years ago by RIMM, CSCO, and YHOO.

I think the $701.86 high we saw last year won't just be the highest price Apple reaches in the near term; it'll be the highet price it reaches in our lifetimes. This once is past its peak, folks. Steve is gone. Look for the next shiny object.

Late-breaking Bonus image, posted within days of Apple's all-time high:

0124-cramer