What Will It Take?

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North Korea loudly proclaimed it was making a nuclear weapon to be fired at the United States. The largest company on the planet has lost one-third of its market value, destroying hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth in the span of a few months. And, based on this, the market on a number of measures reached the highest levels ever in world history.

Well, Apple has been talked to death, and frankly, I think in the weeks ahead, people are going to realize it's basically a company past its prime and not really worth yacking about. No one has given me a medal (or a chest to pin it on) for my oh-so-right prediction about Apple, but I'll say what I've said before: you will never see this stock again at $700, and you can expect it to fart around in the 400s (and, occasionally, lower 500s) in the months ahead. As the chart shows below, we are close to major support, and a retard-o-bounce is a strong possibility.


The aforementioned bounce is what scares me as everyone's favorite permabear. Many broad indexes seem to be saying to me, "Hey! Mr. Bear! Yeah, you! F*ck you! Yeah, you heard what I said! F*CK YOU!" This is remarkable to me on two counts: (1) indexes can speak; (2) they are able to articulate such that the asterisk is distinguishable within the confines of a word.

Here's one of them that spoke to me thusly:


The Dow Transports were just as rude; they, like many broad indexes, are at the Highest Point In Human History, Like, Ever.


The Russell is just as cruel; look at the evil joke it perpetrated: take note of the green and blue tints. It sure looked like we were ready to plunge into hell after the second blue zone, didn't it? Yep, it sure did. That's why I showed up here, day after day, talking about the end of the world, only to wind up looking like an unwashed dildo.


There are still glimmers of hope. As Earth's longest-standing Bear On Miners, I take heart that the supporting trendline is damaged beyond hope, and that even on a "lifetime highs!" day like today, we can sink another 3%.


The NASDAQ likewise is in a bearish configuration. The reason for this is the broken trendline, although I will remind you that pushing up against a broken trendline means that this index can make highs day after day and still be "bearishly configured." I'd rather not join our Gainesville friends and be saying it's a great time to go balls-in on shorting everything under the sun. 2008, I'm starting to realize, is five years ago.


The EUR/USD is key. If we break above the horizontal, life for bears will go from Unimaginably Shitty to Unthinkably Awful (these are the actual terms; I have the continuum in front of me). If we break the support, we might actually get a market crash of 17 points on Dow before Shalom comes and rescues his kin again.


I remain 50% in cash, and 50% in three thousand and sixty two small short positions. One day God will smile upon me. Until then, I shall pretend His holy urine is a gentle, loving rain.