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Hearty greetings to you, Slopers, and welcome to the new year!
Most of you know that I rarely travel, but when I do, I naturally cannot be the ridiculously-engaged and supremely-active blogmaster that I usually am.
I will be on the road all during the first week of the year, and things won't really be back to normal for me until Tuesday the 8th. Until that time, I'll try to keep things moving along, and I'd like to make an extra-special, extra-humble request to the contributing editors out there for lots of content during this first week, as I won't be as prolific as normal!
Thanks for your understanding, and again, welcome to 2013. I hope it's one for the history books. (Oh, and if you're super-bored not having a post, feel free to peruse SocialTrade!)
***[First of all, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank Tim Knight for allowing me to post my articles here…and to thank Slopers for all your kind remarks on my work. You've all made my life easier this year and more fun. As well, I've learned a great deal from others who post here and from those Slopers who participate in the Comments section…thank you!]
a year! A year of social unrest, demonstrations, riots, government overthrows,
mass murders, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, nuclear reactor meltdowns,
political discord, economic distress (the "R" word has resurfaced), austerity,
financial weakness, credit rating downgrades, volatility, financial fraud, law
suits, assassinations, and the passing of Steve Jobs…no wonder the markets
have been so reactive (sometimes quite violently) rather than proactive in a
"The question will be
whether stability returns to the European markets and whether recent stability
can hold and improve in Emerging Markets for 2012, or whether volatility (VIX)
will rise again…the VIX is still elevated, so there is a good possibility that
it will. No doubt, all market action will be reflective of upcoming world news
events, as well as consumer and investor sentiment, together with risk vs safety
appetite. A couple of gauges that I'll follow in this regard are the VIX, U.S.
$, and Copper, as well as the other instruments noted above. Without benefit of
major Fed QE intervention, I imagine that next year could be
range-bound…within this year's high and low, generally…although unforeseen
catastrophes could send the Major Indices below this year's
What a day, eh? Those who were saying on Friday they would buy QQQ and AAPL calls just for the hell of it hopefully followed through. This must be one of the most, if not the most, positive closes on the ES for the entirety of 2012.
I note, with no small amount of interest, that the descending trendline was nailed to the penny. And, with that, I'm going to sign off and prepare for a week-long trip I have forthcoming. I offer my wishes for a safe New Year's Eve (don't drink and chart!), and I'll see you in the morning (unless a cool guest post is put onto the site beforehand………)
My short idea offered when HLF was in the mid-40s worked out nicely, but after the insane plunge it took earlier this month, it was time to step aside. I will say, however, that if there's any way this beast musters its way back to the low 40s, it will again be a dynamite short opportunity.
Seeking Alpha has only 3 entries under the ‘Gold & Precious Metals’ section of its most recent ‘Macro View’ email notice:
Silver: Another Decade of 500% Returns is Possible
Silver: Are We Ready Yet for the Rally to $60+?
Silver is Set to Explode in 2013
To be fair, the second article highlights lower near-term targets
prior to a rally to $60+ and this brings me to my point; silver is in a
bear flag. I too am bullish on Ag and Au in 2013, but the charts are
the charts and silver’s daily chart targets 27-28 first, which we have
been noting in the newsletter despite a recent change to a bullish risk vs. reward stance on the precious metals complex.
Bullish risk vs. reward (meaning gold and silver have notably more
upside potential than downside risk) is one thing and short-term
technicals are another. The short-term technicals say to be ready for a
lame rise to the noted resistance level (31 had been important support
before its failure) and the potential for a renewed decline to strong
support in the 27 to 28 range.
I am sure the above noted articles are not the only three out there.
When the silver bugs are beating the drum loudly and the technicals are
not yet in line, it always pays to be cautious in the near term.
On the bigger picture using the weekly chart for example, silver’s
technicals look fine. But that should include the potential for a drop
to the mid-high 20′s because despite a bullish macro fundamental view
and even longer-term technical view, the recent correction is not yet
indicated to be over.
What might we look for? A final, dispiriting decline with sentiment
bottomed out and the CoT (Commitments of Traders data) going to a full
bullish structure (it is moving in the right direction) and some
positive technical divergence (like that noted on the chart above from
last summer) would be an excellent setup.
And if I am being too bearish on the short-term, we’ll know soon
enough with a sustained rise above the noted resistance area at 31,
which also includes the 200 day simple moving average (solid red line).
Just a word of caution and perspective from your friends at biiwii.com.