***[First of all, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank Tim Knight for allowing me to post my articles here…and to thank Slopers for all your kind remarks on my work. You've all made my life easier this year and more fun. As well, I've learned a great deal from others who post here and from those Slopers who participate in the Comments section…thank you!]
Here's what I wrote one year ago about 2011:
"2011…what
a year! A year of social unrest, demonstrations, riots, government overthrows,
mass murders, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, nuclear reactor meltdowns,
political discord, economic distress (the "R" word has resurfaced), austerity,
financial weakness, credit rating downgrades, volatility, financial fraud, law
suits, assassinations, and the passing of Steve Jobs…no wonder the markets
have been so reactive (sometimes quite violently) rather than proactive in a
measured manner."
and
"The question will be
whether stability returns to the European markets and whether recent stability
can hold and improve in Emerging Markets for 2012, or whether volatility (VIX)
will rise again…the VIX is still elevated, so there is a good possibility that
it will. No doubt, all market action will be reflective of upcoming world news
events, as well as consumer and investor sentiment, together with risk vs safety
appetite. A couple of gauges that I'll follow in this regard are the VIX, U.S.
$, and Copper, as well as the other instruments noted above. Without benefit of
major Fed QE intervention, I imagine that next year could be
range-bound…within this year's high and low, generally…although unforeseen
catastrophes could send the Major Indices below this year's
lows."
(more…)