Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

1600 Gold?

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How about that…since I wrote my post of January 23GOLD Futures (GC) finally hit just above its target price of 1550 on August 26…and it carried on to make a 2019 high of 1566.20 on September 4, for a gain of 21.58% from that date.

The moving average Golden Cross, that had just formed a couple of days prior to that, held, price retested the 200 MA (which is normal after these form), and the formation is still in play, as shown on the following daily chart of GC.

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US Bond Bubble Or Equity Bubble?

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Based on purely technical reasons, which I’ll explain below, I’d hazard a guess that US bonds are not in a bubble. If anything, equities look more like their bubble is about to burst.

The price on the following monthly charts of US 2-yr, 5-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr bonds is currently trading around their respective regression channel medians, after a lengthy move up over the past year off very oversold lows (around the channel -2 deviation level).

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Light Crude Oil Breakout Imminent

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Senator Lindsey Graham unleashed a series of tweets Saturday morning after learning of drone attacks on Saudi oil refineries.

I’ve yet to hear whether the Saudis will blame/have blamed Iran for the attacks and whether war will eventually be declared against them. It’s been reported that, “Houthi rebels – who are backed by Iran in a yearslong Saudi-led war against them in Yemen – have reportedly claimed responsibility for the attacks and have vowed that further attacks could be expected in the future.”

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SPX: Warning Gaps?

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As Friday’s trading action is coming to a close in a couple of hours before the Labour Day weekend, an interesting observation to note is this daily chart of the SPX.

Since the beginning of August, gaps on the open in both directions have pretty much occurred on a daily basis (blue box). When the same thing happened in the last quarter of 2018 (blue box), we saw a rapid plunge in the space of a few days.

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Volatility Churns In US Markets

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As I mentioned in my post of August 5volatility ramped up on July 26 and it continues to churn in US markets, as evidenced on the following daily chart of the SPX, as well as the monthly chart of the SPX:VIX ratio.

Near-term resistance and support levels are 2950 and 2800, respectively, on the SPX.

Major resistance and support levels on the SPX:VIX ratio are 200 and 100, respectively.

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