Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Nine-Year U.S. Bull Market Money Flow

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The first three of the following graphs depict percentages gained for the Major U.S. Indices during three time periods, namely:

  • since March 6, 2009 (the bottom of the 2008/09 financial crisis),
  • since November 8, 2016 (the Presidential election), and
  • year-to-date.

Generally, traders/investors have favoured technology, small-cap, and transportation indices over the large-cap and utilities indices…indicating a stronger preference for risk over value, which continues to today.

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A World Financial Battle Approaches

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The first three ratio charts show:

  1. the U.S. Financial ETF (XLF) compared with the SPX,
  2. the European Financial ETF (EUFN) compared with the STOX50, and
  3. the Chinese Financial ETF (GXC) compared with the SSEC.

Each one’s Financial ETF is weaker than its country’s major index, and in the case of the EUFN and GXC ratios, are sitting at a major support level, while the XLF ratio is approaching major support.

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China’s Shanghai Index Approaching Freefall

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I last wrote about China’s Shanghai Index in my post of June 19.

This index is in bear market territory and is headed toward its last (monthly) swing low of 2638.30, as shown on the following monthly chart of SSEC. A break of that level could see a swift drop to its next major support level of 2260, or lower.

Both the momentum (MOM) and rate-of-change (ROC) indicators are below the zero level and are accelerating to the downside on this timeframe. Watch to see if they make a new swing low below the one made in February 2016.

If so, this index could be headed for major problems, and the increasing trade war with the U.S. is not helping. (more…)

SPX Fibonacci Fan Resistance Levels/Targets

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Overlayed on each of the following two monthly charts of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a Fibonacci Speed Resistance Fan.

The first one is taken from the low of March 2009 to the high of May 2015, which preceded the last major pullback to first fanline support and prior to the recent minor one this past February. Based on this fan trajectory, the first major resistance level sits just above the last all-time high (of 2872.87) at 2900.

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The FAANGs: What I’m Watching

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Together, the 5 FAANG stocks + 5 tech stocks make up FNGU (an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies…the index is highly concentrated and equally weighted).

The following 1-year and 2-month daily charts of these 10 stocksFNGU, plus INTC, show price action relative to their 20 and 50-day MAs, as well as the Rate-of-change (ROC) technical indicator.

Ten out of twelve of them have broken their uptrends, some more recent than others, while others have been mired in sideways consolidation zones for months. “Shock drops,” together with high volumes and accelerating ROC, occurred last week on FBTWTRINTC and FNGU, while NFLX experienced those on July 17 and is attempting to stabilize. (more…)

10th Year U.S. Bull Market Run vs. ‘Summer Swoon’

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Further to my post of March 10, we may be seeing the beginnings of a 10th year bull run, inasmuch as volatility of the SPXNDX, and RUT has been attempting to stabilize recently.

However, this attempt is not yet a slam dunk. As noted on the following daily ratio charts of the SPX:VIXNDX:VXN, and RUT:RVX, I’m still waiting for:

SPX:VIX ratio: a bullish crossover of the 50 MA above the 200 MA to form a Golden Cross

NDX:VXN ratio:  a bullish crossover of the PMO technical indicator

RUT:RVX ratio: a bullish crossover of the PMO technical indicator

All other technical indicators must continue to hold their present bullish formations, and price needs to hold above their respective major support levels, namely: (more…)

‘Summer Swoon’ In Store For Major Indices?

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As shown on the daily chart below, a moving average “Death Cross” has formed on the World Market Index. It closed out Q2 2018 just above horizontal price support and below trendline support, as well as below both moving averages.

All three technical indicators are in negative territory, hinting of further weakness ahead, particularly if price drops and holds below 1950 on accelerating RSI, MACD and PMO declines.

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Vulnerability Intensifies For China’s Shanghai Index

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Price action on the following monthly chart of China’s Shanghai Index has been under the bearish influence of a very long-term downtrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel since it peaked in October 2007 and bottomed the following October.

After a weak attempt to break out above this channel at the end of January of this year, it retreated and is currently dropping early Tuesday morning following President Trump’s latest threats several hours ago to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in connection with their recent trade war. It has broken below its near-term major support level of 3000 that I had identified in my posts of April 9 and February 16.

If this index returns to its channel “median,” it’s in for one heck of a plunge! Look for a break and hold below its last swing low at 2638.30 to continue its current downtrend on this monthly timeframe. It’s already in downdrend on the weekly and daily timeframes following its failed channel breakout attempt and the momentum indicator is firmly in downtrend on all three timeframes. (more…)

U.S. Market Risk Surges as World-Wide Trade Wars Escalate

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From the daily percentage comparison chart below of the four U.S. Major Indices, you can see that the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices have begun to surge above their recent all-time highs and have accelerated faster than their Dow 30 and S&P 500 counterparts.

The spread between the first two and the latter two indices is ever-widening and higher risk investing is on the rise…signalling that, either this latest surge is the beginning of a new bull market that would, ultimately, pull in the Dow and S&P and send them to record highs, as well, or is in the process of forming a climatic thrust before the end of a very long bull run that began when stocks plummeted to their lows on March 6, 2009, following the 2008/09 financial crisis.

With today’s drop in these markets (as of 12:40 pm ET), presumably in response to further tariffs imposed on China by President Trump, we’ll see how escalating world-wide trade wars, inflation, and Central Bank interest rate actions affect/infect U.S. (and world) markets in the coming weeks. (more…)