Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Israel’s Tel Aviv 125 Index Poised for a Rally

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As Israel prepares for the relocation of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on Monday, the Tel Aviv 125 Index (TA125) appears to be poised for a rally.

Price closed on Friday just above major support of 1325 and is trading in between the 50 and 200 moving averages, as shown on the following daily chart.

A break and hold above the 50 MA at 1337, along with a rise in the RSI above 50 and further strength in the MACD and PMO indicators, could see price retest 1400, or higher. The higher swing high on the RSI is hinting of further strength. If such a scenario were to materialize, it’s important that the 50 MA remain above the 200 MA, lest we see a bearish Death Cross form, followed by selling. (more…)

Bitcoin’s Slippery Search for Fair Value

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My last post on Bitcoin made reference to a bearish engulfing candle that had formed on the daily timeframe.

Since then, its price drifted slightly upwards, then plunged and closed below the low of that candle on Friday, as shown on the following daily chart.

The momentum and rate-of-change indicators did not confirm the recent higher price high, but are both in an accelerating diverging downtrend, and are below their zero levels.

Bitcoin Daily

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VIX “Normal” Price Range Using TPO Profile Study

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TPO stands for Time Price Opportunity. By using a TPO profile chart, you are able to analyze the amount of trading activity, based on time, for each price level that the market traded at for any given time period. The Point of Control (POC) is the price where it spent the most time during that period and in that timeframe.

If you look at the following monthly chart of the VIX with the TPO profile study added to it along the right hand side, you’ll see that its POC (on a monthly basis) since 1986 is 20.53.

Whereas, the TPO POC on a daily timeframe from 1986 is 14.66, as shown on the daily chart below.

This tells me that the average “normal” range of the VIX during the past 33 years is between 14.66 and 20.53, regardless of its trading activity on either a monthly or daily timeframe.

I’d also go a bit further and say that any time it traded outside that range for any length of time, it was “unusual” and, therefore, unsustainable…something to consider when you’re taking longer position trades in equities.

As of Thursday’s close, the VIX was trading in “unusual” territory at 13.23below the “normal” range, where it has spent most of its time since the November 2016 general election.

The last time it spent the majority of its time below the “normal” range was from 2005 to 2007 leading up to the 2008/09 financial crisis. (more…)

Political Headwinds Await US Markets

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As economic benefits of last year’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act begin to filter into the US economy, the S&P 500 Index appears to be headed towards a retest of its all-time high of 2872.87 set in January of this year, as shown on the monthly chart below. This record high was accompanied by an all-time momentum (MOM) high, as well…hinting of further strength ahead at some point on this timeframe.

It has broken above what was near-term resistance of 2680 (as I described in my post of May 4).

Watch for a break and hold above its next major resistance level (top of long-term uptrending channel) at 2750. Otherwise, a break and hold below 2680 could see price retest its next support level of 2620, or lower.

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Stalled Markets, Baby Boomers, and Accelerating Information

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BABY BOOMERS & THE INFORMATION AGE

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines a Baby Boomer as a member of the generation born between 1946 and 1964. If the average age of Baby Boomers is 65 years, then 1953 would be an important year for them. A lot of stuff happened that year, including the end of the Korean War.

Read more at ThePeopleHistory.com

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WTIC Oil Churns as World Leaders and Markets Digest Israel’s Report on Iran

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The price of WTIC Crude Oil (CL) continues to churn in a tight sideways consolidation range as markets and world leaders digest Israel’s latest release of information regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

As shown on the following daily chart of CL, it’s still in uptrend on this timeframe, and this latest consolidation zone (green zone) may be a “bull flag” formation…suggesting higher prices ahead. (more…)