Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Pre-Jobs Report

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Well, I'm halfway through my pseudo-vacation, and the markets remain quite interesting in my semi-absence. There are a couple of amazing bear setups that are getting away from me. One of them is bonds, which at long, long last seems to be entering an honest-to-God crumble. The technical damage is getting extreme, and it seems the world is finally waking up to the fact that counting on multi-century lows in interest rates is a dead proposition.

 0103-tlt

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Wednesday’s Volatility Crush (by Strawberry Blonde)

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With today's (Wednesday's) "gap-up-and-go" action on the SPX, RUT, and NDX,
volatility got crushed, as shown on the three Daily ratio
charts
below.

The SPX:VIX ratio closed just
above trendline resistance. I'd say, if price can hold above
95.00, it has a good chance of going higher, provided the
Momentum indicator stays above the zero level now.

The RUT:RVX
ratio
closed at major resistance. I'd say, if price can hold
above 46.00, it has a good chance of going higher, provided the
Momentum indicator stays above the zero level now.

The NDX:VXN
ratio
closed in between trendline resistance and support. I'd say, if
price can hold above 150.00, it has a good chance of going
higher, provided the Momentum indicator stays above the zero level now.

As shown on the
Daily charts below, and looking at a bigger picture, there is
still plenty of room in a larger channel from the June 2012 lows on the SPX and
NDX before they hit their upper channel, while the upper channel is much closer
at around 890.00 on the RUT. Whether the RUT hits its upper
channel and continues to run higher without either consolidating or pulling back
remains to be seen, if the SPX and NDX continue their rally…one to
watch for continued leadership, particularly after making it's all-time
high/closing high today
.

Approaching Resistance (by Springheel Jack)

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I generally make a rule of posting no more than eight charts in a single post but I have nine today. Apologies to anyone who thinks that is too many but they're all worth including IMO. I've taken out three others including the Dow chart showing a second retest of the broken rising wedge support trendline close above yesterday's high. 

SPX punched up strongly through the upper daily bollinger band yesterday. This is a relatively rare occurrence and I've marked six previous instances of this on the chart below. Of those six, only the last one marked a short term high, and for this and other reasons I'll explain below I'm expecting at least some more upside before we get a significant retracement:

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