Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Dreamliner Nightmare

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Boeing's long-awaited debut of the DreamLiner seems to be going over – if you'll pardon the phrase – like a lead balloon. As airlines have decided to ground the new plane, what with its electrical malfunctions and unexpected fires, the stock of Boeing is likewise succumbing to a bit of gravity. The technical problems with the chart started months ago, when the supporting trendline was violated. I'd say the highs may be in for this stock for a while.


The January Effect (by phantomcapital)

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The January Effect, like its equally annoying cousin, the
Santa Claus Effect, is another delightful phrase to remind us all to continue
buying every equity that isn't nailed down. 
So let's look at this current January to see how things are
progressing.  First, buyers are supposed
to take advantage of lower December prices. 
Check.  Second, small cap stocks
are supposed to outperform in this environment. 
Check.  Third, the effect is
supposed to be strongest in the third year of a President's term (2011).  Check. 
I'd like to examine the last two Januaries to try and give some guidance
as to how this winter season will play out. 
As usual, I'll be presenting charts with numbers, and as always, the
numbers are just markers for my points, not waves.


The third year of the President's term gave us a January
Effect that was already well underway. 
1.  The November high just
slightly exceeded the high for the year. 
2.  Consolidation to give bears
hope for an end of the year selloff. 
3.  Break to new highs.  4.  An uninterrupted,
three month grind straight higher that absolutely blew the doors off the prior

SPX January 2011


Lame Burritos Meet their Maker

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I consider myself a relatively "pure" chartist, not allowing fundamentals or folklore to influence my decisions. But with Chipotle, it was more than just the chart that compelled me to short it (as well as buy puts, which is an act I take upon myself literally once or twice a year, versus the thousands of equity trades I do).

As I have often cited here on Slope, I think Chipotle food sucks out loud. The offerings are completely middle-of-the-road, and the pledge on their menu that some (some!) of their ingredients are probably organic doesn't impress me. Nor does the fact that they charge 50% more for the same food that I can get at any given Redwood City joint (all hail Los Gallos!) Setting aside the fact that mom 'n' pop burrito joints have much tastier offerings.

Anyway, before the open, I was delighted to see their stock down about 10% pre-market, so I dumped the put and covered the stock right at the open. I think much, much lower prices are ahead, but I'm going to wait for a decent re-entry point before I refry these beans once more.